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Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd HK$1.26, price HK$2.57, upside -51.0%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG4644E1145

HF Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd

3638 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$1.26 · Strongly overvalued (−51.0%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −23.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -49.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$21.03 HK$1.95 Fair Value HK$1.26 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.95 – HK$21.03 · fair‑value band HK$0.9350 – HK$1.88 · the HK$2.57 price screens above the HK$1.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Hunlicar Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the computer and electronic products trading business in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Computer and Electronic Products Trading Business; Food Trading Business; and Financial Services Business.

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Hunlicar Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the computer and electronic products trading business in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Computer and Electronic Products Trading Business; Food Trading Business; and Financial Services Business. The company provides computer and peripheral products; and engages in assembling and trading of electronic components and products. It also offers seafood, meat, poultry, and beverages products. In addition, the company offers financial services business including securities brokerage business, advisory services business, and money lending services; and property holding businesses. The company was formerly known as Huabang Technology Holdings Limited and changed its name to Hunlicar Group Limited in October 2024. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638) currently trades at HK$2.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.26, 51.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.9350 (bear) to HK$1.88 (bull), the price of HK$2.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$239M in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound −41.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$76.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$623M (≈ $79.3M) · P/S ratio 3.98 · Net margin −31.8% · Return on equity −31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.3% · Operating margin 3.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$156M · Revenue growth (YoY) −48.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 83% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −51%, 3638 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.9350 Fair Value HK$1.26 Bull HK$1.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.25 HK$1.68 HK$2.51 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.25 HK$1.68 HK$2.51 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−48.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.8% (2020) → −26.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

3638 screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 371 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −49.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −48.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.51× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 54.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $55.86 $78.34 +40%
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Kingdom Holding 4280 13.08 SAR 13.40 SAR +2%
Koç Holding KCHOL 216.50 TRY 182.26 TRY −16%
Aker ASA AKER kr 1,446 kr 1,017 −30%

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Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.26 −51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3638

Frequently asked questions

Is Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.26 versus a price of HK$2.57, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3638?
Our model-based fair value for Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is HK$1.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.57.
What is the quality score of 3638?
Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9350, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.26, about −51% upside versus a price of HK$2.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9350, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$156M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.57. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3638 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.57, fair value HK$1.26, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.26). For Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd at about HK$623M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.57; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3638?
Our models span a range for Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9350, base HK$1.26, optimistic HK$1.88 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Balance-sheet figures for Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −31.6%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3638 from its 52-week high?
Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.57, about 83% below its 52-week high of HK$15.20 and 2% above the low of HK$2.53 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.57, calculated fair value HK$1.26 (−51%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3638 calculated?
We run Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.57. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.26, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.9350 to HK$1.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The market capitalisation of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is HK$623M (≈ $79.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is 3.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The net margin of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is −31.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is −31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is −17.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
The operating margin of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Revenue at Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is growing −48.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −48.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638)?
Earnings per share at Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd are growing −38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638) generate?
The free cash flow of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is −HK$580K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd (3638) carry?
The net debt of Huabang Financial Holdings Ltd is HK$71.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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