3638 (3638) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · Market cap HK$623M

3 3638 3638 · HK

PriceHK$8.10

Fair ValueHK$1.68

Upside-79.3%

Quality37/100

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Evidence: Low Range HK$1.25 – HK$2.51

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated today

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$7.90 – HK$18.30 · fair‑value band HK$1.25 – HK$2.51 · the HK$8.10 price screens above the HK$1.68 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

3638 (3638) currently trades at HK$8.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.68 — implying the stock looks roughly 79.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, 3638 generated revenue of HK$156M at a net margin of -49.0%. Revenue declined 48.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.6%. Net debt stands at HK$71.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$156M

Revenue growth (YoY) -48.7%

Net margin -49.0%

Return on equity -31.6%

Free cash flow −HK$580K FY2025

Operating margin 3.1%

More key figures

EPS growth (YoY) -38.3%

Net debt HK$71.7M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

3638 reported revenue of HK$239M in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound −41.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$76.1M in FY2025.

Revenue −41.4%/yr

FY21 HK$2.0B

FY22 HK$1.7B

FY23 HK$457M

FY24 HK$357M

FY25 HK$239M

Net income

FY21 −HK$93.1M

FY22 −HK$241M

FY23 −HK$128M

FY24 HK$14.8M

FY25 −HK$76.1M

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Similar stocks

6 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Honeywell International Inc HON	C$25.91	C$14.79	-43%
CITIC Limited 0267	HK$12.87	HK$21.98	+71%
Swire Pacific Limited 0019	HK$81.70	HK$13.77	-83%
CK Hutchison Holdings 0001	HK$68.50	HK$141.53	+107%
Itaúsa S.A ITSA3	R$12.65	R$12.63	-0%
SK Inc 034730	579,000 KRW	370,641 KRW	-36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3638 (3638) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.68 versus a price of HK$8.10 — about −79% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3638?

Our model-based fair value for 3638 is HK$1.68 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$8.10.

What is the quality score of 3638?

3638 has a Quality Score of 37/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3638 (3638)?

3638 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$156M (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3638?

The net profit margin of 3638 is about -49.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.