New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$1.5B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$4.65 to HK$4.64 (−0.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 147% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5711 – HK$2.57 · fair‑value band HK$3.51 – HK$5.76 · the HK$1.88 price screens below the HK$4.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) currently trades at HK$1.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.64, implying the stock looks roughly 146.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, New Hope Service Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.5B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$929M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$3.51 (bear case) to HK$5.76 (bull case); at HK$1.88, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 147%, 3658 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$6.72) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Hope Service Holdings Limited provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Property Management Services, Lifestyle Services, Commercial Operational Services, and Value-Added Services to Non-Property Owners.
Full company description
New Hope Service Holdings Limited provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Property Management Services, Lifestyle Services, Commercial Operational Services, and Value-Added Services to Non-Property Owners. It offers property management services to residential properties, commercial properties, and other types of non-residential properties; community operation services and community asset management services; online and offline retail services, catering services, marketing consultancy services, and community space operational services. The company also provides market research and positioning, tenant sourcing services, commercial operation services, and commercial properties leasing; value-added services to non-property owners, including preliminary planning, design consultancy, pre-delivery services, and sales office management. New Hope Service Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.5B in FY2025 versus HK$925M in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$216M in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,989 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +15% |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR | 43,850 IDR | 15,049 IDR | -66% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,412 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +23% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 392.00 IDR | 1,012 IDR | +158% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 22,000 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -13% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,610 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -4% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 2,990 ARS | +20% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 2,698 IDR | +7% |
| PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG | 74.00 IDR | 122.12 IDR | +65% |
| PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP | 770.00 IDR | 291.52 IDR | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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