New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd HK$4.15, price HK$1.66, upside +150.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5711 – HK$2.57 · fair‑value band HK$3.00 – HK$6.00 · the HK$1.66 price screens below the HK$4.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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New Hope Service Holdings Limited provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Property Management Services, Lifestyle Services, Commercial Operational Services, and Value-Added Services to Non-Property Owners.
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New Hope Service Holdings Limited provides property management services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through the Property Management Services, Lifestyle Services, Commercial Operational Services, and Value-Added Services to Non-Property Owners. It offers property management services to residential properties, commercial properties, and other types of non-residential properties; community operation services and community asset management services; online and offline retail services, catering services, marketing consultancy services, and community space operational services. The company also provides market research and positioning, tenant sourcing services, commercial operation services, and commercial properties leasing; value-added services to non-property owners, including preliminary planning, design consultancy, pre-delivery services, and sales office management. New Hope Service Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) currently trades at HK$1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.15, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$7.44 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.27, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.00 (bear) to HK$6.00 (bull), the price of HK$1.66 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 925M CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 216M CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $172M) · P/E ratio 5.9 · P/S ratio 0.83 · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4% · Operating margin 16.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 150%, 3658 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.00Fair Value HK$4.15Bull HK$6.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare New Hope Service Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 526 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+150.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New Hope Service Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3658
Frequently asked questions
Is New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.15 versus a price of HK$1.66, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3658?
Our model-based fair value for New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is HK$4.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.66.
What is the quality score of 3658?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.00, optimistic scenario HK$6.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New Hope Service Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.15, about +150% upside versus a price of HK$1.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.00, optimistic scenario HK$6.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does New Hope Service Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, New Hope Service Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3658 use?
Our models discount New Hope Service Holdings Ltd at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For New Hope Service Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at New Hope Service Holdings Ltd grew +21.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.05 %: that much free cash flow New Hope Service Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Hope Service Holdings Ltd it is HK$4.15 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$1.66. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New Hope Service Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 3658 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.66, fair value HK$4.15, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3658?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.15). For New Hope Service Holdings Ltd the two are HK$2.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Hope Service Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values New Hope Service Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.66; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3658?
Our models span a range for New Hope Service Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.00, base HK$4.15, optimistic HK$6.00 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$1.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3658?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
Balance-sheet figures for New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 15.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3658 from its 52-week high?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.66, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$1.96 and 2% above the low of HK$1.63 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Hope Service Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Hope Service Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$1.66, calculated fair value HK$4.15 (+150%), Quality Score 70/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3658 calculated?
We run New Hope Service Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. New Hope Service Holdings Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.66. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.15, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Hope Service Holdings Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$3.00 to HK$6.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The market capitalisation of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is HK$1.4B (≈ $172M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The dividend yield of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 9.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The net margin of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 14.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
The operating margin of New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
Revenue at New Hope Service Holdings Ltd is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658)?
Earnings per share at New Hope Service Holdings Ltd are growing −17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does New Hope Service Holdings Ltd (3658) hold?
New Hope Service Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 929M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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