Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Yancoal Australia Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.96 – HK$47.40 · fair‑value band HK$32.20 – HK$38.96 · the HK$35.02 price screens above the HK$33.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Europe, Israel, Chile, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh.
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Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Europe, Israel, Chile, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh. The company owns a 98.75% interest in the Moolarben coal mine located in the Western Coalfields of New South Wales; an 83.6% interest in the Mount Thorley and Warkworth mines located in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; and 51% interest in the Hunter Valley Operations located to the north-west of Singleton in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. It also holds 100% interests in the Yarrabee mine located to the northeast of Blackwater in Central Queensland's Bowen Basin; Donaldson located in the Hunter Valley; Ashton mine located in the Upper Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; and Stratford Duralie mine located within the New South Wales Gloucester Basin, the Stratford Duralie. In addition, the company owns Middlemount mine located to the northeast of Emerald in Queensland's Bowen Basin; Premier Coal located in Collie, Western Australia; and Austar and Cameby Downs, and other interests located in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Sydney, Australia. Yancoal Australia Ltd is a subsidiary of Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) currently trades at HK$35.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$33.75, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$8.82 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$35.02 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$4.34, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$32.20 (bear) to HK$38.96 (bull), the price of HK$35.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Yancoal Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$5.9B in FY2025 versus A$5.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$440M in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$46.2B (≈ $5.9B) · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1200 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −4%, 3668 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$32.20Fair Value HK$33.75Bull HK$38.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 20.4%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (40 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yancoal Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3668
Frequently asked questions
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$33.75 versus a price of HK$35.02, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3668?
Our model-based fair value for Yancoal Australia Ltd is HK$33.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$35.02.
What is the quality score of 3668?
Yancoal Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$33.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$32.20, optimistic scenario HK$38.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yancoal Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$33.75, about −4% upside versus a price of HK$35.02 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$32.20, optimistic scenario HK$38.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Yancoal Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Yancoal Australia Ltd pay a dividend?
Yancoal Australia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yancoal Australia Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +39.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3668 use?
Our models discount Yancoal Australia Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yancoal Australia Ltd that is +39.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yancoal Australia Ltd grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies +39.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yancoal Australia Ltd (+39.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.12 %: that much free cash flow Yancoal Australia Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yancoal Australia Ltd it is HK$33.75 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$35.02. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 3668 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$35.02, fair value HK$33.75, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3668?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$35.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$33.75). For Yancoal Australia Ltd the two are HK$1.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yancoal Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Yancoal Australia Ltd at about HK$46.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$35.02; our models calculate a fair value of HK$33.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3668?
Our models span a range for Yancoal Australia Ltd: cautious scenario HK$32.20, base HK$33.75, optimistic HK$38.96 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$35.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3668?
Yancoal Australia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$33.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yancoal Australia Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3668 from its 52-week high?
Yancoal Australia Ltd trades at HK$35.02, about 29% below its 52-week high of HK$49.08 and 46% above the low of HK$24.02 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$33.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yancoal Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$35.02, calculated fair value HK$33.75 (−4%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3668 calculated?
We run Yancoal Australia Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$33.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Yancoal Australia Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Yancoal Australia Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Yancoal Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The market capitalisation of Yancoal Australia Ltd is HK$46.2B (≈ $5.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 1.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Earnings per share at Yancoal Australia Ltd are HK$0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The dividend yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The net margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 23.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
The operating margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Revenue at Yancoal Australia Ltd is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668)?
Earnings per share at Yancoal Australia Ltd are growing −65.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668) hold?
Yancoal Australia Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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