Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Holly Futures Co Ltd HK$1.84, price HK$2.16, upside -14.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7180 – HK$5.81 · fair‑value band HK$1.38 – HK$2.30 · the HK$2.16 price screens above the HK$1.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the futures business in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Futures Brokerage and Asset Management, and Commodity Trading and Risk Management.
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Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the futures business in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Futures Brokerage and Asset Management, and Commodity Trading and Risk Management. It offers brokerage services for commodity and financial futures; and invests in asset management plans, bank wealth management products, listed and unlisted securities, trust schemes, funds, and derivative financial instruments. The company also provides bulk commodity purchase and resale, futures arbitrage, basis trading, and hedging services. In addition, it is involved in futures investment consulting; fund sales; market making business; OTC derivatives; warehouse receipts services; cooperation hedging and commodity risk management businesses; other businesses related to risk management services; dealing in futures contracts and securities; and advising on securities. The company was formerly known as Holly Futures Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd. in May 2025. Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.
Stock analysis
Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) currently trades at HK$2.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.84, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$1.38 (bear) to HK$2.30 (bull), the price of HK$2.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Holly Futures Co Ltd reported revenue of 270M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −36.2%/yr. Reported net income was 3.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −53.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.2B (≈ $278M) · P/S ratio 7.71 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0172 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 22.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −15%, 3678 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.38Fair Value HK$1.84Bull HK$2.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0097 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−44.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−45% vs −27%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−25.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holly Futures Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3678
Frequently asked questions
Is Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.84 versus a price of HK$2.16, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3678?
Our model-based fair value for Holly Futures Co Ltd is HK$1.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.16.
What is the quality score of 3678?
Holly Futures Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.38, optimistic scenario HK$2.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holly Futures Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.84, about −15% upside versus a price of HK$2.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.38, optimistic scenario HK$2.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Holly Futures Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$303M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Holly Futures Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Holly Futures Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holly Futures Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -25.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -29.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3678 use?
Our models discount Holly Futures Co Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holly Futures Co Ltd that is -25.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holly Futures Co Ltd grew -29.6 % a year. The price currently implies -25.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holly Futures Co Ltd (-25.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.62 %: that much free cash flow Holly Futures Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holly Futures Co Ltd it is HK$1.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.16. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holly Futures Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3678 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.16, fair value HK$1.84, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3678?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.84). For Holly Futures Co Ltd the two are HK$0.3200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holly Futures Co Ltd worth?
The market values Holly Futures Co Ltd at about HK$2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.16; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3678?
Our models span a range for Holly Futures Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.38, base HK$1.84, optimistic HK$2.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holly Futures Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3678 from its 52-week high?
Holly Futures Co Ltd trades at HK$2.16, about 49% below its 52-week high of HK$4.20 and 5% above the low of HK$2.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holly Futures Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holly Futures Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.16, calculated fair value HK$1.84 (−15%), Quality Score 56/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3678 calculated?
We run Holly Futures Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Holly Futures Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.16. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.84, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holly Futures Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) come from?
Earnings per share at Holly Futures Co Ltd grew −18.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.0 %, EBIT margin −28.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holly Futures Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The market capitalisation of Holly Futures Co Ltd is HK$2.2B (≈ $278M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 7.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Earnings per share at Holly Futures Co Ltd are HK$0.0172. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The dividend yield of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 23.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The net margin of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
The operating margin of Holly Futures Co Ltd is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Revenue at Holly Futures Co Ltd is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −43.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678)?
Earnings per share at Holly Futures Co Ltd are growing +933% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holly Futures Co Ltd (3678) carry?
The net debt of Holly Futures Co Ltd is HK$55.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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