Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd HK$2.51, price HK$0.32, upside +684.4%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3200 – HK$1.83 · fair‑value band HK$1.44 – HK$4.14 · the HK$0.3200 price screens below the HK$2.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater treatment and water supply services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wastewater Treatment, Water Supply, and Others segments.
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Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater treatment and water supply services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wastewater Treatment, Water Supply, and Others segments. The company offers wastewater treatment services, water supply services, management services, thermal production, transportation services, and construction services. It is also involved in reclaimed water supply and running water supply projects. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Kunming, the People's Republic of China. Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Kunming Dianchi Investment Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) currently trades at HK$0.3200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.51, implying the stock looks roughly 87.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$4.64 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$0.3200 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.06, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.44 (bear) to HK$4.14 (bull), the price of HK$0.3200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 196M CNY in FY2025, compounding −12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$489M (≈ $62.3M) · P/E ratio 2.2 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300 · Net margin 13.3% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 24.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 684%, 3768 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.44Fair Value HK$2.51Bull HK$4.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0983 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.9% vs −5.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 29%
Compare Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)24.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3768
Frequently asked questions
Is Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.51 versus a price of HK$0.3200, about +684% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3768?
Our model-based fair value for Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is HK$2.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3200.
What is the quality score of 3768?
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.44, optimistic scenario HK$4.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.51, about +684% upside versus a price of HK$0.3200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.44, optimistic scenario HK$4.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd it is HK$2.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3200. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3768 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3200, fair value HK$2.51, a gap of about +684% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3768?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.51). For Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd the two are HK$2.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd worth?
The market values Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd at about HK$489M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3200; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3768?
Our models span a range for Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.44, base HK$2.51, optimistic HK$4.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.3200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3768?
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3768 from its 52-week high?
Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd trades at HK$0.3200, about 64% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9000 and at the low of HK$0.3200 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.3200, calculated fair value HK$2.51 (+684%), Quality Score 42/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3768 calculated?
We run Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd currently trades 87 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.3200. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.51, about +684% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.44 to HK$4.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) come from?
Earnings per share at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd grew −2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The market capitalisation of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is HK$489M (≈ $62.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Earnings per share at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd are HK$0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The net margin of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 13.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
The operating margin of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 24.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Revenue at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768)?
Earnings per share at Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd are growing −44.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) generate?
The free cash flow of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is −527M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd (3768) carry?
The net debt of Kunming Dianchi Water Treatment Co Ltd is 5.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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