KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd (3816) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$1.2B (≈ $148M) · ISIN KYG525551027

What is KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd really worth?

KK KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd 3816 · HK

PriceHK$3.28

Fair ValueHK$1.47

Upside−55.2%

Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 123% above our fair value of HK$1.47.

As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd is HK$1.47 per share against a price of HK$3.28, so the fair value sits 55% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +20.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Moderate moat 46/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 8 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range HK$0.9300 – HK$1.98

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price +42.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (HK$0.9300 to HK$1.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1692 – HK$3.28 · fair‑value band HK$0.9300 – HK$1.98 · the HK$3.28 price screens above the HK$1.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd (3816) currently trades at HK$3.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.47, implying the stock looks roughly 123.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$2.40 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$3.28 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.6900, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.0B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 52.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$15.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9300 (bear case) to HK$1.98 (bull case); at HK$3.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −55%, 3816 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0305 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Owner Earnings best evidence HK$1.72 HK$2.31 HK$3.05 78

EPV HK$1.37 HK$1.53 HK$1.66 74

Residual Income HK$0.9200 HK$1.08 HK$2.18 72

All 16 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings best evidence HK$1.72 HK$2.31 HK$3.05 78

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.9300 HK$2.43 HK$3.18 65

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8700 57

EPV HK$1.37 HK$1.53 HK$1.66 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$0.0600 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 68

DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0600 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1200 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$2.14 HK$2.86 HK$3.57 63

P/S Multiple HK$1.73 HK$2.31 HK$2.89 58

P/B Multiple HK$1.73 HK$2.31 HK$2.89 55

EV/EBIT HK$2.33 HK$3.05 HK$3.76 66

EV/EBITDA HK$2.29 HK$2.99 HK$3.69 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.72 HK$2.38 HK$3.03 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5100 HK$0.6900 HK$1.03 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.9200 HK$1.08 HK$2.18 72

ROIC Compounder HK$1.41 HK$1.65 HK$1.90 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.68 HK$2.40 HK$3.11 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$2.40) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0900). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.8 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.08 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8

Dividend yield 0.4% payout 19.4%

Net margin 7.8% FY2026

Return on equity 12.8% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% avg 5y

Operating margin 11.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.0B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +52.7% 3y avg +19.8%

EPS growth (YoY) +255%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow −HK$33.2M FY2025

Net cash HK$15.2M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 52

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 91

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 7

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 85

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 69

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 34

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 98

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 99

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

KFM Kingdom Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells precision metal stamping products in the People's Republic of China, South East Asia, Hong Kong, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells fine metal products; and provides management services. It also provides integrated services, including design engineering solutions; prototyping, CNC laser cutting, CNC tooling design and tooling mold design, metal stamping parts, and lathing or machining parts; hard tooling and soft tooling services; secondary processing services comprising laser welding or robotic argon welding, riveting, tapping, drilling, polishing, and sand blasting; and post-treatment processing services, such as silk screening printing, heat treatment, plating, and coating, as well as product assembly and quality testing services. In addition, the company offers packaging solutions; and engages in property investment activities, as well as supply chain management services. It serves medical and test equipment, finance equipment, consumer electronics, network/data storage, and office automation industries. KFM Kingdom Holdings Limited was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong. KFM Kingdom Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Kig Real Estate Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.0B in FY2026 versus HK$612M in FY2022, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$81.6M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2026)

HK$1.0B

Latest YoY

+37.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+19.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+20.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (16Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+4.2%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +54.9% (approximate, leans on 2026) · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+54.5%

Dividend yield0.4%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 54.5% vs 10Y 10.0%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.1% (2021) → 9.7% (2026) · rising

Worst earnings drop369% (2022) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

⚠ Rate leans on 2026: that final year sits 251% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted

Revenue +14.2%/yr

FY22 HK$612M

FY23 HK$605M

FY24 HK$590M

FY25 HK$758M

FY26 HK$1.0B

Net income

FY22 −HK$48.2M

FY23 HK$22.7M

FY24 HK$23.2M

FY25 HK$36.3M

FY26 HK$81.6M

3816 screens 123% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.47 −123%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3816.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$1.47</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−123%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3816.HK

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 249 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −55% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%

Return on assets 7% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median

Revenue growth 53% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 1.88× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE100 · sector 35

PAST51 · sector 21

HEALTH100 · sector 95

DIVIDEND8 · sector 26

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

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Viohalco S.A VIO	€16.46	€14.98	−9%
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Frequently asked questions

Is KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd (3816) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.47 versus a price of HK$3.28, about −55% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 3816?

Our model-based fair value for KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd is HK$1.47 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.28.

What is the quality score of 3816?

KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd (3816)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.47 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9300, optimistic scenario HK$1.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$1.47, about −55% upside versus a price of HK$3.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9300, optimistic scenario HK$1.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd (3816)?

KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3816?

The net profit margin of KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd is about 7.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?

KFM Kingdom Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).

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