Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd HK$1.70, price HK$1.82, upside -6.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5590 – HK$3.50 · fair‑value band HK$1.27 – HK$1.88 · the HK$1.82 price screens above the HK$1.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, ore processing, smelting, refining, and selling of nickel, copper, and other nonferrous metals. It provides nickel cathode, as well as other products, including copper cathode; and cobalt, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium products.
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Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, ore processing, smelting, refining, and selling of nickel, copper, and other nonferrous metals. It provides nickel cathode, as well as other products, including copper cathode; and cobalt, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium products. The company holds 100% interests in the Kalatongke nickel-copper mine located in Fuyun County, Xinjiang; and the Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan nickel-copper mines situated in Hami, Xinjiang. It also has interests in two vanadium mines located in Shangnan, Shaanxi; and the Karchar Fluorspar Mine located in Ruoqiang County, Xinjiang. The company was founded in 1950 and is based in Urumqi, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833) currently trades at HK$1.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.70, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.93 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.82 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.6100, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.27 (bear) to HK$1.88 (bull), the price of HK$1.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 189M CNY in FY2025, compounding −22.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.0B (≈ $513M) · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 1.07 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −7%, 3833 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.27Fair Value HK$1.70Bull HK$1.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.5% vs 9.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 445 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Above median
Fair Value upside−6.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Return on assets1.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3833
Frequently asked questions
Is Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.70 versus a price of HK$1.82, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3833?
Our model-based fair value for Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is HK$1.70 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.82.
What is the quality score of 3833?
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.70 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.70, about −7% upside versus a price of HK$1.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd it is HK$1.70 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.82. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3833 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.82, fair value HK$1.70, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3833?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.70). For Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd the two are HK$0.1200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd at about HK$4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.82; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3833?
Our models span a range for Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.27, base HK$1.70, optimistic HK$1.88 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3833?
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3833 from its 52-week high?
Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd trades at HK$1.82, about 48% below its 52-week high of HK$3.50 and 32% above the low of HK$1.38 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.82, calculated fair value HK$1.70 (−7%), Quality Score 45/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3833 calculated?
We run Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.82. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.70, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The market capitalisation of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is HK$4.0B (≈ $513M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The dividend yield of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The net margin of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
The operating margin of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Revenue at Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd are growing +214% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833) generate?
The free cash flow of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is −269M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd (3833) carry?
The net debt of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co Ltd is 1.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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