3858 (3858) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · Market cap HK$26.2B

3 3858 3858 · HK

PriceHK$57.55

Fair ValueHK$13.08

Upside-77.3%

Quality61/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$8.88 – HK$16.49

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −34.6% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (10 months)

10‑month range HK$26.90 – HK$151.50 · fair‑value band HK$8.88 – HK$16.49 · the HK$57.55 price screens above the HK$13.08 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

3858 (3858) currently trades at HK$57.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.08 — implying the stock looks roughly 77.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 3858 generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of 28.7%. It earns a return on equity of 39.5%. Net debt stands at HK$241M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 70.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.1B

Net margin 28.7%

Return on equity 39.5%

Free cash flow HK$391M FY2025

P/E ratio 70.2

Operating margin 47.7%

More key figures

EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0200

Net debt HK$241M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

3858 reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2025 versus HK$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was HK$305M in FY2025.

Revenue

FY22 HK$0

FY23 HK$0

FY24 HK$0

FY25 HK$1.1B

Net income

FY21 −HK$3.3M

FY22 −HK$93.7M

FY23 −HK$78.9M

FY24 −HK$173M

FY25 HK$305M

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Similar stocks

6 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP	$85.78	$60.26	-30%
Rio Tinto Group RTNTF	$129.57	$76.59	-41%
RIO RIO	A$184.58	A$454.52	+146%
Grupo México, S.A. GMBXF	$11.89	$9.58	-19%
CMOC Group CMCLY	$148.88	$119.76	-20%
Vale S.A VALEN	260.19 MXN	124.80 MXN	-52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3858 (3858) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.08 versus a price of HK$57.55 — about −77% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3858?

Our model-based fair value for 3858 is HK$13.08 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$57.55.

What is the quality score of 3858?

3858 has a Quality Score of 61/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3858 (3858)?

3858 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3858?

The net profit margin of 3858 is about 28.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 28.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.