Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest HK$10.48, price HK$47.10, upside -77.8%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range HK$26.02 – HK$146.53 · fair‑value band HK$7.84 – HK$13.10 · the HK$47.10 price screens above the HK$10.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited operates as a tungsten mining company focusing on the development of the Boguty Project based in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The company principally engages in the exploration, development, and operation of a tungsten ore. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858) currently trades at HK$47.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.48, 77.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$11.60 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$47.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.36, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$7.84 (bear) to HK$13.10 (bull), the price of HK$47.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2025 versus HK$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was HK$305M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$21.7B (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 70.2 · P/S ratio 20.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Net margin 28.7% · Return on equity 39.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin 47.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −78%, 3858 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.84Fair Value HK$10.48Bull HK$13.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.1% a year for the price.
Compare Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 445 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−77.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)39.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)28.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)47.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)70.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)20.44× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF55.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA45.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$10.48 versus a price of HK$47.10, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3858?
Our model-based fair value for Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is HK$10.48 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$47.10.
What is the quality score of 3858?
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$10.48 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.84, optimistic scenario HK$13.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$10.48, about −78% upside versus a price of HK$47.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.84, optimistic scenario HK$13.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest would have to grow free cash flow by +26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3858 use?
Our models discount Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest that is +26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (+26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest it is HK$10.48 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$47.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 3858 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$47.10, fair value HK$10.48, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3858?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$47.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$10.48). For Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest the two are HK$36.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest worth?
The market values Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest at about HK$21.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$47.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$10.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3858?
Our models span a range for Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest: cautious scenario HK$7.84, base HK$10.48, optimistic HK$13.10 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$47.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3858?
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$10.48 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 57.4 (reported for FY2025: 64.1). Other multiples: P/B 13.6, P/S 20.4, EV/EBITDA 45.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 39.5%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3858 from its 52-week high?
Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest trades at HK$47.10, about 68% below its 52-week high of HK$146.53 and 70% above the low of HK$27.66 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$10.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$47.10, calculated fair value HK$10.48 (−78%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3858 calculated?
We run Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$10.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$47.10. Our model-based fair value is HK$10.48, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$13.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The market capitalisation of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is HK$21.7B (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is 20.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
Earnings per share at Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest are HK$−0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The net margin of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is 28.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is 39.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858)?
The operating margin of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is 47.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much net debt does Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest (3858) carry?
The net debt of Jiaxin Intl Resources Invest is HK$241M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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