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Sinad Holding Co (4080) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Sinad Holding Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · SA · ISIN SA0007870104

SH Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Sinad Holding Co

4080 · SR

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 1.54 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 29 out of 100
!Weak on past: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

27.05 SAR 7.65 SAR Fair Value 1.54 SAR Jun 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.65 SAR – 27.05 SAR · fair‑value band 1.00 SAR – 2.47 SAR · the 8.45 SAR price screens above the 1.54 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Sinad Holding Company engages in the manufacture, packaging, wholesale, and retail trade of food products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, other Arab countries, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Investment and Industrial.

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Sinad Holding Company engages in the manufacture, packaging, wholesale, and retail trade of food products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, other Arab countries, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Investment and Industrial. It manufactures dairy, dairy products, juices, and drinks; manufactures Saudi thobes and uniforms; invests in stocks and securities; owns real estate and movable properties; provides loans, guarantees, and financing services; and owns and leases industrial property rights, including patents, trademarks, industrial rights, franchises, and other moral rights. The company was formerly known as Aseer Trading, Tourism and Manufacturing Co. and changed its name to Sinad Holding Company in June 2022. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Sinad Holding Company operates as a subsidiary of Dallah Albaraka Holding Company.

Stock analysis

Sinad Holding Co (4080) currently trades at 8.45 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.54 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 448.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 14.24 SAR per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the 8.45 SAR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 5.46 SAR, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 1.00 SAR (bear) to 2.47 SAR (bull), the price of 8.45 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Sinad Holding Co reported revenue of 1.7B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.7B SAR in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −14.8M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.0B SAR (≈ $278M) · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) −0.1900 SAR · Net margin −0.9% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% · Operating margin 5.3% · Revenue (TTM) 1.7B SAR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −82%, 4080 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 1.00 SAR Fair Value 1.54 SAR Bull 2.47 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 17.10 SAR 22.04 SAR 29.70 SAR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 10.59 SAR 14.24 SAR 18.92 SAR 73
NCAV (Graham) 4.08 SAR 5.46 SAR 8.16 SAR 54
All 3 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 4.08 SAR 5.46 SAR 8.16 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 17.10 SAR 22.04 SAR 29.70 SAR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 10.59 SAR 14.24 SAR 18.92 SAR 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.0% (2020) → 5.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

4080 screens 449% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.8× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)29 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)4 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Sinad Holding Co · Fair Value
1.54 SAR −449%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sinad Holding Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4080

Frequently asked questions

Is Sinad Holding Co (4080) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.54 SAR versus a price of 8.45 SAR, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4080?
Our model-based fair value for Sinad Holding Co is 1.54 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8.45 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4080?
Sinad Holding Co has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.54 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.00 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.47 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sinad Holding Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.54 SAR, about −82% upside versus a price of 8.45 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.00 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.47 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Sinad Holding Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sinad Holding Co would have to grow free cash flow by -12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4080 use?
Our models discount Sinad Holding Co at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sinad Holding Co that is -12.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sinad Holding Co (4080) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sinad Holding Co grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies -12.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sinad Holding Co (4080) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sinad Holding Co (-12.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.67 %: that much free cash flow Sinad Holding Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sinad Holding Co it is 1.54 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 8.45 SAR. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sinad Holding Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4080 trades above its calculated fair value: price 8.45 SAR, fair value 1.54 SAR, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4080?
No. The price is what the market pays today (8.45 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.54 SAR). For Sinad Holding Co the two are 6.91 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sinad Holding Co worth?
The market values Sinad Holding Co at about 1.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 8.45 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 1.54 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4080?
Our models span a range for Sinad Holding Co: cautious scenario 1.00 SAR, base 1.54 SAR, optimistic 2.47 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 8.45 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sinad Holding Co (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4080 from its 52-week high?
Sinad Holding Co trades at 8.45 SAR, about 23% below its 52-week high of 10.97 SAR and 11% above the low of 7.58 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.54 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sinad Holding Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sinad Holding Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 8.45 SAR, calculated fair value 1.54 SAR (−82%), Quality Score 59/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4080 calculated?
We run Sinad Holding Co through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.54 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Sinad Holding Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Sinad Holding Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.47 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (1.00 SAR to 2.47 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Sinad Holding Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The market capitalisation of Sinad Holding Co is 1.0B SAR (≈ $278M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sinad Holding Co is 0.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Earnings per share at Sinad Holding Co are −0.1900 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The net margin of Sinad Holding Co is −0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sinad Holding Co is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sinad Holding Co is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
The operating margin of Sinad Holding Co is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Revenue at Sinad Holding Co is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sinad Holding Co (4080)?
Earnings per share at Sinad Holding Co are growing −96.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sinad Holding Co (4080) carry?
The net debt of Sinad Holding Co is 414M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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