Poste Italiane S.p.A (PST) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IT · Market cap €36.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price −5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.14 – €29.23 · fair‑value band €11.23 – €18.72 · the €27.33 price screens above the €14.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Poste Italiane S.p.A (PST) currently trades at €27.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.98, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Poste Italiane S.p.A generated revenue of €14.3B at a net margin of 17.0%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at €3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €11.23 (bear case) to €18.72 (bull case); at €27.33, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -45%, PST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€29.09) versus Asset-Based (€7.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services.
Full company description
Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services. Its Mail, Parcels and Distribution segment engages in the mail, parcel, and logistics activities, as well as provision of welfare services. The PostePay Services segment provides payment management and e-money services through a network of LIS sales points, as well as mobile and fixed telephone services and electricity and gas sales services. Its Financial Services segment engages in the placement and distribution of financial and insurance products and services, such as current accounts, postal savings products, mutual funds, financing, insurance policies, and activities. The Insurance Services segment is involved in the investment, retirement, and protection businesses through the issuance of life and P&C insurance products. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Poste Italiane S.p.A reported revenue of €13.6B in FY2025 versus €31.6B in FY2021, a compound −19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
PST screens 45% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 371 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$11.28 | HK$22.56 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 580,000 KRW | 497,919 KRW | -14% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,810 IDR | 9,620 IDR | +100% |
| The Siam Cement Public Company SCC | 254.00 THB | 199.40 THB | -21% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,875 | ₹1,053 | -63% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,330 CLP | 10,879 CLP | +72% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 50,900 KRW | 61,248 KRW | +20% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,940 | ₹559.30 | -81% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 464,000 KRW | 75,620 KRW | -84% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,809 | ₹1,087 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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