Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alinma Hospitality REIT stock SAR 5.44, price SAR 6.80, upside -20.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range 6.53 SAR – 8.14 SAR · fair‑value band 4.50 SAR – 7.00 SAR · the 6.80 SAR price screens above the 5.44 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Alinma Hospitality REIT is a real estate investment fund. The fund invest in structurally developed and income-generating real estate.
Stock analysis
Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) currently trades at 6.80 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.44 SAR, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 10.71 SAR per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the 6.80 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 4.50 SAR, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 4.50 SAR (bear) to 7.00 SAR (bull), the price of 6.80 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Alinma Hospitality REIT reported revenue of 70.0M SAR in FY2025 versus 89.5M SAR in FY2023, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 49.0M SAR in FY2025, compounding −10.0%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap 694M SAR (≈ $185M) Micro · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 9.90 · EPS (TTM) 0.4800 SAR · Net margin 69.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Free cash flow 62.0M SAR · Net cash 17.8M SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −20%, 4349 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear4.50 SARFair Value 5.44 SARBull7.00 SAR
Price 6.80 SAR · Upside -20.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3972 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price.
Compare Alinma Hospitality REIT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 32 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)69.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.44 SAR versus a price of 6.80 SAR, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4349?
Our model-based fair value for Alinma Hospitality REIT is 5.44 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.80 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4349?
Alinma Hospitality REIT has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.44 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.50 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.00 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alinma Hospitality REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.44 SAR, about −20% upside versus a price of 6.80 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.50 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.00 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alinma Hospitality REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew -11.5 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4349 use?
Our models discount Alinma Hospitality REIT at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alinma Hospitality REIT that is +4.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Alinma Hospitality REIT grew -11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alinma Hospitality REIT (+4.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.93 %: that much free cash flow Alinma Hospitality REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alinma Hospitality REIT it is 5.44 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 6.80 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alinma Hospitality REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 4349 trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.80 SAR, fair value 5.44 SAR, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4349?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.80 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.44 SAR). For Alinma Hospitality REIT the two are 1.36 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alinma Hospitality REIT worth?
The market values Alinma Hospitality REIT at about 694M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 6.80 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 5.44 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4349?
Our models span a range for Alinma Hospitality REIT: cautious scenario 4.50 SAR, base 5.44 SAR, optimistic 7.00 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 6.80 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4349?
Alinma Hospitality REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.44 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How far is 4349 from its 52-week high?
Alinma Hospitality REIT trades at 6.80 SAR, about 16% below its 52-week high of 8.14 SAR and 1% above the low of 6.72 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.44 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alinma Hospitality REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, COVH, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alinma Hospitality REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 6.80 SAR, calculated fair value 5.44 SAR (−20%), Quality Score 69/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4349 calculated?
We run Alinma Hospitality REIT through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.44 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Alinma Hospitality REIT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 6.80 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 5.44 SAR, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alinma Hospitality REIT right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Alinma Hospitality REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
The market capitalisation of Alinma Hospitality REIT is 694M SAR (≈ $185M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alinma Hospitality REIT is 9.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
Earnings per share at Alinma Hospitality REIT are 0.4800 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
The net margin of Alinma Hospitality REIT is 69.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alinma Hospitality REIT is 5.2% (avg 2y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net cash does Alinma Hospitality REIT (4349) hold?
Alinma Hospitality REIT holds more cash than debt, 17.8M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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