ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. TWD 14.26, price TWD 19.05, upside -25.1%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells aluminum alloy forgings products in Taiwan. It is involved in selling of automobiles, locomotives, and other parts. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) currently trades at 19.05 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.26 TWD, 25.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 20.59 TWD per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 19.05 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 4.15 TWD, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.86 TWD (bear) to 25.86 TWD (bull), the price of 19.05 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 1.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 807M TWD in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −22.3M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 629M TWD (≈ $19.7M) · P/E ratio 38.9 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) 0.4900 TWD · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −25%, 4553 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.86 TWDFair Value 14.26 TWDBull 25.86 TWD
Price 19.05 TWD · Upside -25.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2241 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
’19
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’21
’22
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.2% (2020) → −1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.59× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)45· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.26 TWD versus a price of 19.05 TWD, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4553?
Our model-based fair value for ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 14.26 TWD (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.05 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4553?
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 14.26 TWD (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.86 TWD, optimistic scenario 25.86 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 14.26 TWD, about −25% upside versus a price of 19.05 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.86 TWD, optimistic scenario 25.86 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. it is 14.26 TWD per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 19.05 TWD. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 4553 trades above its calculated fair value: price 19.05 TWD, fair value 14.26 TWD, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4553?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.05 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (14.26 TWD). For ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. the two are 4.79 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. at about 629M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 19.05 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 14.26 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4553?
Our models span a range for ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario 2.86 TWD, base 14.26 TWD, optimistic 25.86 TWD per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 19.05 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4553?
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 14.26 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Balance-sheet figures for ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4553 from its 52-week high?
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. trades at 19.05 TWD, about 38% below its 52-week high of 30.65 TWD and 27% above the low of 15.00 TWD (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 14.26 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 19.05 TWD, calculated fair value 14.26 TWD (−25%), Quality Score 29/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4553 calculated?
We run ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 14.26 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 19.05 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 14.26 TWD, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. right now?
Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (2.86 TWD to 25.86 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The market capitalisation of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 629M TWD (≈ $19.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Earnings per share at ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. are 0.4900 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The dividend yield of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 1.0% (payout 40.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The net margin of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
The operating margin of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Revenue at ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553)?
Earnings per share at ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. are growing +25.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) generate?
The free cash flow of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is −201M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) carry?
The net debt of ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. is 530M TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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