ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TW · Market cap 560M TWD
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 7.13 TWD to 14.26 TWD (+100.0%) since Jul 23, 2026. Share price −0.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 17% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (2.86 TWD to 25.86 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.10 TWD – 30.65 TWD · fair‑value band 2.86 TWD – 25.86 TWD · the 16.70 TWD price screens above the 14.26 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. (4553) currently trades at 16.70 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.26 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 14.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. generated revenue of 1.0B TWD at a net margin of -2.2%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.9%. Net debt stands at 530M TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2.86 TWD (bear case) to 25.86 TWD (bull case); at 16.70 TWD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -15%, 4553 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (20.59 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (3.51 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells aluminum alloy forgings products in Taiwan. It is involved in selling of automobiles, locomotives, and other parts. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 1.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 807M TWD in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −22.3M TWD in FY2025.
4553 screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 254 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $528.64 | $101.35 | -81% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $230.43 | $35.74 | -84% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $68.28 | $59.33 | -13% |
| Aurubis AG NDA | €176.10 | €223.43 | +27% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.87 | ¥3.39 | -62% |
| Commercial Metals Company CMC | $68.16 | $13.01 | -81% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥27.08 | ¥8.34 | -69% |
| Viohalco S.A VIO | €17.90 | €14.98 | -16% |
| ESAB Corporation ESAB | $86.05 | $52.40 | -39% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥104.36 | ¥44.23 | -58% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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