Joy Industrial Co (4559) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 587M TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 23, 2026, revised from 3.78 TWD to 7.56 TWD (+100.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (8.50 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.37 TWD – 18.20 TWD · fair‑value band 6.96 TWD – 8.50 TWD · the 9.96 TWD price screens above the 7.56 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
Joy Industrial Co (4559) currently trades at 9.96 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.56 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 24.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Joy Industrial Co generated revenue of 1.0B TWD at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 16.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at 579M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 6.96 TWD (bear case) to 8.50 TWD (bull case); at 9.96 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -24%, 4559 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (7.77 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (0.3000 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, import, export, wholesale, trade, and sale of bicycle parts in Taiwan, China, Europe, and internationally. The company offers bicycle hubs and wheelsets; and carbon fiber front fork and grip products.
Full company description
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, import, export, wholesale, trade, and sale of bicycle parts in Taiwan, China, Europe, and internationally. The company offers bicycle hubs and wheelsets; and carbon fiber front fork and grip products. It is also involved in the manufacture of bicycles, automobiles, and traffic equipment parts and accessories; design, development, and production of carbon fiber clad molds; and production and trading of thermoformed bicycles and related accessories. In addition, the company provides hardware products, traffic equipment motors, and controllers; and precision stamping dies, molds, flywheels, transmission, and other parts. The company was formerly known as Jiuyu Industry Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. in January 2010. Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Joy Industrial Co reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2024 versus 1.1B TWD in FY2020, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1M TWD in FY2024, compounding −51.3%/yr from FY2020.
of which total revenue −4.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
4559 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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