Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. stock TWD 3.82, price TWD 7.31, that is 47.7% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.37 TWD – 18.20 TWD · fair‑value band 3.32 TWD – 4.34 TWD · the 7.31 TWD price screens above the 3.82 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, import, export, wholesale, trade, and sale of bicycle parts in Taiwan, China, Europe, and internationally. The company offers bicycle hubs and wheelsets; and carbon fiber front fork and grip products.
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It is also involved in the manufacture of bicycles, automobiles, and traffic equipment parts and accessories; design, development, and production of carbon fiber clad molds; and production and trading of thermoformed bicycles and related accessories.
In addition, the company provides hardware products, traffic equipment motors, and controllers; and precision stamping dies, molds, flywheels, transmission, and other parts. The company was formerly known as Jiuyu Industry Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. in January 2010.
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) currently trades at 7.31 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.82 TWD, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 7.05 TWD per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the 7.31 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.3850 TWD, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.32 TWD (bear) to 4.34 TWD (bull), the price of 7.31 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2024 versus 1.1B TWD in FY2020, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1M TWD in FY2024, compounding −51.3%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 446M TWD (≈ $13.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 29.2 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) 0.2500 TWD · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −48%, 4559 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.3000 TWD to 9.86 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear3.32 TWDFair Value 3.82 TWDBull4.34 TWD
Price 7.31 TWD · Downside -47.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2500 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF2.30 TWD3.17 TWD4.76 TWD77
Growth DCF2.41 TWD3.24 TWD4.67 TWD75
Residual Income6.42 TWD6.75 TWD7.23 TWD74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF2.30 TWD3.17 TWD4.76 TWD77
Owner Earnings2.31 TWD3.17 TWD4.77 TWD73
5Y Revenue Exit1.29 TWD1.59 TWD2.02 TWD71
5Y EBITDA Exit2.29 TWD3.33 TWD4.71 TWD72
5Y P/E Exit1.26 TWD1.55 TWD1.89 TWD69
10Y Revenue Exit1.65 TWD1.91 TWD2.17 TWD65
10Y EBITDA Exit2.28 TWD2.99 TWD3.75 TWD67
10Y P/E Exit1.66 TWD1.89 TWD2.10 TWD62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd0.2400 TWD0.3000 TWD0.3300 TWD65
EPV0.4200 TWD0.4700 TWD0.5100 TWD73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM0.7100 TWD0.7800 TWD0.8900 TWD67
DDM Multi-Stage0.7100 TWD0.9000 TWD1.15 TWD65
Multiples
P/E Multiple0.5900 TWD0.7800 TWD0.9800 TWD63
P/S Multiple0.4500 TWD0.6000 TWD0.7600 TWD57
P/B Multiple7.39 TWD9.86 TWD12.32 TWD55
EV/EBITDA0.6700 TWD1.52 TWD2.37 TWD63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)4.66 TWD7.05 TWD8.82 TWD54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF2.41 TWD3.24 TWD4.67 TWD75
Rev-Margin DCF1.29 TWD1.64 TWD2.09 TWD71
Economic Profit
Residual Income6.42 TWD6.75 TWD7.23 TWD74
ROIC Compounder0.4200 TWD0.4700 TWD0.5100 TWD69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E0.4100 TWD0.5900 TWD0.7700 TWD65
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−38.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−44.3% vs −28.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 2%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.1%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.9% a year for the price.
Compare Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−16.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Is Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.82 TWD versus a price of 7.31 TWD, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4559?
Our model-based fair value for Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 3.82 TWD (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7.31 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4559?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.82 TWD (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.32 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.34 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.82 TWD, about 48% lower versus a price of 7.31 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.32 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.34 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. has a dividend yield of 5.5%.
What growth is priced into Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4559 use?
Our models discount Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. that is +4.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (+4.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.97 %: that much free cash flow Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. it is 3.82 TWD per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 7.31 TWD. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 4559 trades above its calculated fair value: price 7.31 TWD, fair value 3.82 TWD, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4559?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7.31 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.82 TWD). For Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. the two are 3.49 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. at about 446M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 7.31 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 3.82 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4559?
Our models span a range for Joy Industrial Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario 3.32 TWD, base 3.82 TWD, optimistic 4.34 TWD per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 7.31 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4559?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.82 TWD is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2024), reported earnings: 14.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 23.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Balance-sheet figures for Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4559 from its 52-week high?
Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. trades at 7.31 TWD, about 52% below its 52-week high of 15.20 TWD and 9% above the low of 6.70 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.82 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Joy Industrial Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 7.31 TWD, calculated fair value 3.82 TWD (−48%), Quality Score 60/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4559 calculated?
We run Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. through 22 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 3.82 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 7.31 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 3.82 TWD, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.34 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) come from?
Earnings per share at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. grew −7.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.8 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The market capitalisation of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 446M TWD (≈ $13.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Earnings per share at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. are 0.2500 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The dividend yield of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 5.5% (payout 160%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The net margin of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
The operating margin of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Revenue at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is growing −16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559)?
Earnings per share at Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. are growing +78.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. (4559) carry?
The net debt of Joy Industrial Co., Ltd. is 579M TWD (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 10.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026