4C Group AB (4C) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of 4C Group AB SEK 3.28, price SEK 7.00, upside -53.1%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range kr 5.91 – kr 47.20 · fair‑value band kr 3.28 – kr 4.91 · the kr 7.00 price screens above the kr 3.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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4C Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides software solutions and expert services for organizational resilience, training, and crisis management worldwide. It operates through EMEA Software, APAC Software, North America Software, and Global Expert Services segments.
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4C Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides software solutions and expert services for organizational resilience, training, and crisis management worldwide. It operates through EMEA Software, APAC Software, North America Software, and Global Expert Services segments. The company offers Exonaut, a software platform that enables management of incidents, crises, risks, and compliance assurance; supports the maintenance and continuity of operations affected by disruptions and crises; and provides a software solution for military and civilian customers in exercise management and capability development. Its Exonaut defence platform also offers planning and programming, collective training and exercise management, wargame and simulation management, special forces selection, training measurement and evaluation, trials and experimentation management, lessons management, unit training management, deterrence reporting, and interoperability reporting management solutions. In addition, the company provides Resilience Platform, an AI-assisted organizational resilience solution that provides continuity manager, risk manager, incident manager, and exercise manager solutions. Further, it offers software-related services, such as consultancy, technical support, implementation, integration, configuration, management, and maintenance services; expert services, including risk consulting, business continuity management, and crisis management; and risk management, training and exercise management, incident management, climate risk and resilience, and IT continuity and cybersecurity services. The company serves the emergency services, energy and utilities, financial services, IT and telecom, manufacturing, military and defence, public safety, and transportation and aviation sectors. 4C Group AB (publ) was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
4C Group AB (4C) currently trades at kr 7.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 3.28, implying the stock looks roughly 113.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 24.22 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the kr 7.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 2.90, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 3.28 (bear) to kr 4.91 (bull), the price of kr 7.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
4C Group AB reported revenue of 352M SEK in FY2025 versus 264M SEK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −16.8M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 341M SEK (≈ $34.3M) · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.0300 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 13.1% · Revenue (TTM) 341M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −53%, 4C screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 3.28Fair Value kr 3.28Bull kr 4.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.0% (2020) → 3.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.10× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.9× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "4C Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4C
Frequently asked questions
Is 4C Group AB (4C) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 3.28 versus a price of kr 7.00, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4C?
Our model-based fair value for 4C Group AB is kr 3.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 7.00.
What is the quality score of 4C?
4C Group AB has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 4C Group AB (4C)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 3.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 3.28, optimistic scenario kr 4.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the 4C Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 3.28, about −53% upside versus a price of kr 7.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 3.28, optimistic scenario kr 4.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 4C Group AB (4C)?
4C Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 341M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 4C Group AB it is kr 3.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 7.00. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is 4C Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4C trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 7.00, fair value kr 3.28, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4C?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 7.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 3.28). For 4C Group AB the two are kr 3.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 4C Group AB worth?
The market values 4C Group AB at about 341M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 7.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 3.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4C?
Our models span a range for 4C Group AB: cautious scenario kr 3.28, base kr 3.28, optimistic kr 4.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 7.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Balance-sheet figures for 4C Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4C from its 52-week high?
4C Group AB trades at kr 7.00, about 54% below its 52-week high of kr 15.30 and 18% above the low of kr 5.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 3.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 4C Group AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 4C Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 7.00, calculated fair value kr 3.28 (−53%), Quality Score 32/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4C calculated?
We run 4C Group AB through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 3.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. 4C Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 7.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 3.28, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 4C Group AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 4.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of 4C Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The market capitalisation of 4C Group AB is 341M SEK (≈ $34.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 4C Group AB is 1.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Earnings per share at 4C Group AB are kr −0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The net margin of 4C Group AB is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 4C Group AB is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 4C Group AB (4C)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 4C Group AB is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The operating margin of 4C Group AB is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 4C Group AB (4C)?
Revenue at 4C Group AB is growing +26.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at 4C Group AB (4C)?
Earnings per share at 4C Group AB are growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does 4C Group AB (4C) generate?
The free cash flow of 4C Group AB is −48.4M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does 4C Group AB (4C) carry?
The net debt of 4C Group AB is 139M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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