4C Group (4C) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 341M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 2.66 to kr 2.87 (+7.9%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price −9.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 3.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (kr 2.87 to kr 3.17), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range kr 5.91 – kr 47.20 · fair‑value band kr 2.87 – kr 3.17 · the kr 8.03 price screens above the kr 2.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
4C Group (4C) currently trades at kr 8.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.87, implying the stock looks roughly 64.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, 4C Group generated revenue of 322M SEK at a net margin of -7.8%. Revenue declined 33.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.5%. Net debt stands at 139M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 2.87 (bear case) to kr 3.17 (bull case); at kr 8.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -64%, 4C screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 8.85) versus Dividend Discount (kr 0.4300). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
4C Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides software solutions and expert services for organizational resilience, training, and crisis management worldwide. It operates through EMEA Software, APAC Software, North America Software, and Global Expert Services segments.
Full company description
4C Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides software solutions and expert services for organizational resilience, training, and crisis management worldwide. It operates through EMEA Software, APAC Software, North America Software, and Global Expert Services segments. The company offers Exonaut, a software platform that enables management of incidents, crises, risks, and compliance assurance; supports the maintenance and continuity of operations affected by disruptions and crises; and provides a software solution for military and civilian customers in exercise management and capability development. Its Exonaut defence platform also offers planning and programming, collective training and exercise management, wargame and simulation management, special forces selection, training measurement and evaluation, trials and experimentation management, lessons management, unit training management, deterrence reporting, and interoperability reporting management solutions. In addition, the company provides Resilience Platform, an AI-assisted organizational resilience solution that provides continuity manager, risk manager, incident manager, and exercise manager solutions. Further, it offers software-related services, such as consultancy, technical support, implementation, integration, configuration, management, and maintenance services; expert services, including risk consulting, business continuity management, and crisis management; and risk management, training and exercise management, incident management, climate risk and resilience, and IT continuity and cybersecurity services. The company serves the emergency services, energy and utilities, financial services, IT and telecom, manufacturing, military and defence, public safety, and transportation and aviation sectors. 4C Group AB (publ) was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
4C Group reported revenue of kr 352M in FY2025 versus kr 264M in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 16.8M in FY2025.
4C screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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