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4C Group AB (4C) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of 4C Group AB stock SEK 3.28, price SEK 4.80, that is 31.7% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology SE · ISIN SE0017936891

4G 4C Group AB logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

4C Group AB

4C · ST
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr in SEK)
Thin margins · 2.3% net margin (TTM)
Profit last quarter 44% below a year ago.
Fair value kr 3.28 · Overvalued
Quality 31/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 20/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 45.09 kr 4.40 Fair Value kr 3.28 May 2022 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

53‑month range kr 4.40 – kr 45.09 · fair‑value band kr 3.28 – kr 4.91 · the kr 4.80 price screens above the kr 3.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

4C Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides software solutions and expert services for organizational resilience, training, and crisis management worldwide. It operates through EMEA Software, APAC Software, North America Software, and Global Expert Services segments.

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The company offers Exonaut, a software platform that enables management of incidents, crises, risks, and compliance assurance; supports the maintenance and continuity of operations affected by disruptions and crises; and provides a software solution for military and civilian customers in exercise management and capability development.

Its Exonaut defence platform also offers planning and programming, collective training and exercise management, wargame and simulation management, special forces selection, training measurement and evaluation, trials and experimentation management, lessons management, unit training management, deterrence reporting, and interoperability reporting management solutions.

In addition, the company provides Resilience Platform, an AI-assisted organizational resilience solution that provides continuity manager, risk manager, incident manager, and exercise manager solutions.

Further, it offers software-related services, such as consultancy, technical support, implementation, integration, configuration, management, and maintenance services; expert services, including risk consulting, business continuity management, and crisis management; and risk management, training and exercise management, incident management, climate risk and resilience, and IT continuity and cybersecurity services.

The company serves the emergency services, energy and utilities, financial services, IT and telecom, manufacturing, military and defence, public safety, and transportation and aviation sectors. 4C Group AB (publ) was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Stock analysis

4C Group AB (4C) currently trades at kr 4.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 3.28, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 22.38 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the kr 4.80 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 2.59, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 3.28 (bear) to kr 4.91 (bull), the price of kr 4.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

4C Group AB reported revenue of 352M SEK in FY2025 versus 264M SEK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −16.8M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 192M SEK (≈ $19.5M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.0300 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.9% · Revenue (TTM) 338M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −32%, 4C screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 3.28 Fair Value kr 3.28 Bull kr 4.91
Price kr 4.80 · Downside -31.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings kr 13.75 kr 22.38 kr 36.69 75
EPV kr 2.82 kr 3.28 kr 3.69 74
ROIC Compounder kr 2.82 kr 3.28 kr 3.69 72
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings kr 13.75 kr 22.38 kr 36.69 75
Earnings-Based
EPV kr 2.82 kr 3.28 kr 3.69 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT kr 1.56 kr 3.23 kr 4.91 62
EV/EBITDA kr 14.73 kr 20.79 kr 26.86 67
EV/Revenue n/a kr 0.1600 >kr 0.6400 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 1.93 kr 2.59 kr 3.87 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder kr 2.82 kr 3.28 kr 3.69 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 37
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 3
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 35
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.0% (2020) → 3.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

4C screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −31.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.7% · Below median
Return on assets −3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −8.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.72× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.57× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $530.61 $583.67 +10% vs 4C
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $118.84 $130.72 +10% vs 4C
Oracle Corporation ORCL $116.10 $111.97 −4% vs 4C
NetApp, Inc NTAP $169.19 $156.80 −7% vs 4C
Block, Inc XYZ $85.48 $76.43 −11% vs 4C
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $450.46 $288.23 −36% vs 4C
Zscaler, Inc ZS $197.66 $101.45 −49% vs 4C
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $160.38 $42.20 −74% vs 4C
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $216.90 $37.97 −82% vs 4C
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $313.84 $39.54 −87% vs 4C

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4C Group AB: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "4C Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4C

Frequently asked questions

Is 4C Group AB (4C) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 3.28 versus a price of kr 4.80, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4C?
Our model-based fair value for 4C Group AB is kr 3.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 4.80.
What is the quality score of 4C?
4C Group AB has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 4C Group AB (4C)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 3.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 3.28, optimistic scenario kr 4.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the 4C Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 3.28, about 32% lower versus a price of kr 4.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 3.28, optimistic scenario kr 4.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 4C Group AB (4C)?
4C Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 338M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 4C Group AB it is kr 3.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of kr 4.80. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is 4C Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 4C trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 4.80, fair value kr 3.28, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4C?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 4.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 3.28). For 4C Group AB the two are kr 1.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 4C Group AB worth?
The market values 4C Group AB at about 192M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is kr 4.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 3.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4C?
Our models span a range for 4C Group AB: cautious scenario kr 3.28, base kr 3.28, optimistic kr 4.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price kr 4.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Balance-sheet figures for 4C Group AB (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4C from its 52-week high?
4C Group AB trades at kr 4.80, about 62% below its 52-week high of kr 12.75 and 9% above the low of kr 4.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 3.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 4C Group AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 4C Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price kr 4.80, calculated fair value kr 3.28 (−32%), Quality Score 31/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4C calculated?
We run 4C Group AB through 7 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 3.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. 4C Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 4.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 3.28, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 4C Group AB right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of 4C Group AB

How large is the market capitalisation of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The market capitalisation of 4C Group AB is 192M SEK (≈ $19.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 4C Group AB is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 4C Group AB (4C)?
Earnings per share at 4C Group AB are kr −0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The net margin of 4C Group AB is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 4C Group AB is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 4C Group AB (4C)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 4C Group AB is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 4C Group AB (4C)?
The operating margin of 4C Group AB is −8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 4C Group AB (4C)?
Revenue at 4C Group AB is growing −4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at 4C Group AB (4C)?
Earnings per share at 4C Group AB are growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does 4C Group AB (4C) generate?
The free cash flow of 4C Group AB is −48.4M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does 4C Group AB (4C) carry?
The net debt of 4C Group AB is 139M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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