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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation ₹375, price ₹223, upside +68.5%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
500312 · BSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value ₹375.28 · Strongly undervalued (+68.5%)
!Quality 48/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
✓8.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹80.57 – ₹307.88 · fair‑value band ₹201.04 – ₹507.07 · the ₹222.70 price screens below the ₹375.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production, and Refining & Marketing segments.
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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production, and Refining & Marketing segments. The company also engages in the refining and marketing of petroleum products; transportation of oil and natural gas; and production of liquefied petroleum gas, ethane/propane, naphtha, superior kerosene oil, low sulphur high stock, aviation turbine fuel, and high speed diesel. In addition, it generates electric power through 726 megawatts (MW) gas based power project in Tripura; 51 MW wind power project in Surajbari, Gujarat; and 102 MW wind power project in Rajasthan, as well as generates solar power through a total installed capacity of 23 MW. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312) currently trades at ₹222.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹375.28, implying the stock looks roughly 40.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹446.77 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹222.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹182.91, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹201.04 (bear) to ₹507.07 (bull), the price of ₹222.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reported revenue of ₹6.6T in FY2025 versus ₹3.6T in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹362B in FY2025, compounding +22.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹848B (≈ $8.8B) · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) ₹3.43 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% · Operating margin 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 69%, 500312 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹201.04
Fair Value ₹375.28
Bull ₹507.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
₹246.20
₹458.69
₹794.29
77
Residual Income
₹240.47
₹267.87
₹336.76
76
Growth DCF
₹246.39
₹446.77
₹755.45
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹246.20
₹458.69
₹794.29
77
Owner Earnings
₹67.36
₹162.49
₹312.74
72
5Y Revenue Exit
₹287.30
₹551.68
₹902.81
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
₹225.69
₹429.94
₹676.49
73
5Y P/E Exit
₹213.45
₹405.75
₹616.30
69
10Y Revenue Exit
₹256.67
₹495.76
₹844.72
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
₹229.81
₹410.62
₹666.92
66
10Y P/E Exit
₹222.01
₹393.70
₹619.64
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹195.81
₹777.10
₹1,056
64
Lynch FV
₹192.50
₹275.00
₹357.50
61
PEG = 1.0
₹192.50
₹275.00
₹357.50
57
EPV
₹266.29
₹320.59
₹367.44
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
₹118.57
₹236.27
₹357.78
67
DDM Multi-Stage
₹118.57
₹204.19
₹249.40
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹302.35
₹403.14
₹503.92
63
P/S Multiple
₹367.14
₹489.52
₹611.90
58
P/B Multiple
₹367.14
₹489.52
₹611.90
55
EV/EBIT
₹250.87
₹360.36
₹469.85
65
EV/EBITDA
₹245.41
₹353.08
₹460.76
67
EV/Revenue
₹320.94
₹491.75
₹662.56
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹136.50
₹182.91
₹273.00
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹246.39
₹446.77
₹755.45
75
Rev-Margin DCF
₹287.30
₹546.40
₹864.80
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹240.47
₹267.87
₹336.76
76
ROIC Compounder
₹266.29
₹360.61
₹496.62
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹273.04
₹390.05
₹507.07
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Profitability
44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Major Integrated Oil & Gas” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Energy · 989 stocks
Beats the sector median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Energy median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.08 | ¥19.15 | +12% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$143.10 | HK$238.73 | +67% |
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥16.11 | ¥43.06 | +167% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,155 | ₹4,719 | −58% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,233 | ₹1,095 | −11% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹178.00 | ₹147.10 | −17% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹375.28 versus a price of ₹222.70, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 500312?
Our model-based fair value for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is ₹375.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹222.70.
What is the quality score of 500312?
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹375.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹201.04, optimistic scenario ₹507.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹375.28, about +69% upside versus a price of ₹222.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹201.04, optimistic scenario ₹507.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Oil and Natural Gas Corporation pay a dividend?
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oil and Natural Gas Corporation it is ₹375.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ₹222.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oil and Natural Gas Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 500312 trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹222.70, fair value ₹375.28, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 500312?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹222.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹375.28). For Oil and Natural Gas Corporation the two are ₹152.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oil and Natural Gas Corporation worth?
The market values Oil and Natural Gas Corporation at about ₹848B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ₹222.70; our models calculate a fair value of ₹375.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 500312?
Our models span a range for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation: cautious scenario ₹201.04, base ₹375.28, optimistic ₹507.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ₹222.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 500312?
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹375.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 500312 from its 52-week high?
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation trades at ₹222.70, about 26% below its 52-week high of ₹301.35 and at the low of ₹222.70 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹375.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oil and Natural Gas Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, CMOC Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oil and Natural Gas Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ₹222.70, calculated fair value ₹375.28 (+69%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 500312 calculated?
We run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹375.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹222.70. Our model-based fair value is ₹375.28, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oil and Natural Gas Corporation right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹201.04 to ₹507.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The market capitalisation of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is ₹848B (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is 1.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Earnings per share at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are ₹3.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The dividend yield of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is 8.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The net margin of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is 5.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
The operating margin of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Revenue at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is growing −42.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (500312)?
Earnings per share at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are growing −98.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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