Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.88 – ¥32.23 · fair‑value band ¥21.04 – ¥77.11 · the ¥17.63 price screens below the ¥43.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of aluminum products in China and internationally.
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Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of aluminum products in China and internationally. It offers electrolytic, liquid, recycled, and oxidized aluminum, as well as aluminum alloy, aluminum hydroxide, alumina, and deep-processed aluminum products. The company is also involved in trading; investment management; and logistics businesses. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Shandong Hontron Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited and changed its name to Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited in January 2026. Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Binzhou, China. Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379) currently trades at ¥17.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥43.52, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥59.03 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥17.63 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥18.29, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥21.04 (bear) to ¥77.11 (bull), the price of ¥17.63 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 156B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +164.5%/yr. Reported net income was 17.9B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 243B CNY (≈ $36.4B) · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 1.33 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.51 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 75.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at 147%, 002379 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥21.04Fair Value ¥43.52Bull ¥77.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9113 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4,381.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+253.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+131.2%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.3% (2020) → 17.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
Compare Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+24% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)75% · Top 25%
Return on assets32% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002379
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥43.52 versus a price of ¥17.63, about +147% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 002379?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is ¥43.52 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥17.63.
What is the quality score of 002379?
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥43.52 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥21.04, optimistic scenario ¥77.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥43.52, about +147% upside versus a price of ¥17.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥21.04, optimistic scenario ¥77.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 158B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd it is ¥43.52 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥17.63. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 002379 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥17.63, fair value ¥43.52, a gap of about +147% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002379?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥17.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥43.52). For Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd the two are ¥25.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd at about 243B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥17.63; our models calculate a fair value of ¥43.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002379?
Our models span a range for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥21.04, base ¥43.52, optimistic ¥77.11 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥17.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002379?
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥43.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 75.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002379 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd trades at ¥17.63, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥33.13 and 63% above the low of ¥10.85 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥43.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥17.63, calculated fair value ¥43.52 (+147%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002379 calculated?
We run Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥43.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd currently trades 147 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥17.63. Our model-based fair value is ¥43.52, about +147% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥21.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (¥21.04 to ¥77.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 243B CNY (≈ $36.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 1.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd are ¥1.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 1.4% (payout 16.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The net margin of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 75.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
The operating margin of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Revenue at Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +254%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd are growing +37.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 18.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd (002379) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd is 8.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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