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Rana Sugars Limited (507490) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Rana Sugars Limited ₹30.80, price ₹13.06, upside +135.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Rana Sugars Limited
507490 · BSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value ₹30.80 · Strongly undervalued (+135.8%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹10.72 – ₹42.20 · fair‑value band ₹17.34 – ₹48.23 · the ₹13.06 price screens below the ₹30.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Rana Sugars Limited manufactures and sells sugar, molasses, and bagasse in India. It operates through three segments: Sugar Manufacturing, Ethanol Manufacturing, and Power Generation. The company offers double refined white sulphurless, plantation white, and raw sugar, as well as sugar from sugar beet.
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Rana Sugars Limited manufactures and sells sugar, molasses, and bagasse in India. It operates through three segments: Sugar Manufacturing, Ethanol Manufacturing, and Power Generation. The company offers double refined white sulphurless, plantation white, and raw sugar, as well as sugar from sugar beet. It also produces power from bagasse; manufactures various grades of alcohol, such as rectified spirit and potable grade extra neutral alcohol, as well as liquor; and offers sugar beet pulp as cattle feed. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Chandigarh, India.
Stock analysis
Rana Sugars Limited (507490) currently trades at ₹13.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹30.80, implying the stock looks roughly 57.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹43.43 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹13.06 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹17.71, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹17.34 (bear) to ₹48.23 (bull), the price of ₹13.06 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Goods sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rana Sugars Limited reported revenue of ₹17.1B in FY2025 versus ₹12.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹344M in FY2025, compounding −31.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹871M (≈ $9.0M) · P/E ratio 0.3 · EPS (TTM) ₹18.15 · Net margin 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 3.5% · Revenue (TTM) ₹12.4B · Revenue growth (YoY) −21.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Goods peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 136%, 507490 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹17.34
Fair Value ₹30.80
Bull ₹48.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹18.15 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
₹21.68
₹37.10
₹60.47
78
Growth DCF
₹21.89
₹35.16
₹53.85
77
Owner Earnings
₹26.72
₹45.07
₹72.89
75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹21.68
₹37.10
₹60.47
78
Owner Earnings
₹26.72
₹45.07
₹72.89
75
5Y Revenue Exit
₹20.78
₹36.91
₹57.77
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
₹30.73
₹56.00
₹86.11
73
5Y P/E Exit
₹24.97
₹44.95
₹66.36
69
10Y Revenue Exit
₹20.05
₹34.81
₹55.21
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
₹27.11
₹47.94
₹76.85
66
10Y P/E Exit
₹23.48
₹40.33
₹61.77
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹15.22
₹53.24
₹71.58
64
Lynch FV
₹12.40
₹17.71
₹23.02
61
PEG = 1.0
₹12.40
₹17.71
₹23.02
57
EPV
₹18.69
₹22.40
₹25.60
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹35.26
₹47.02
₹58.77
63
P/S Multiple
₹28.55
₹38.06
₹47.58
58
P/B Multiple
₹28.55
₹38.06
₹47.58
55
EV/EBIT
₹31.81
₹44.03
₹56.24
66
EV/EBITDA
₹40.41
₹55.49
₹70.57
67
EV/Revenue
₹21.33
₹32.53
₹43.74
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹18.73
₹25.10
₹37.46
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹21.89
₹35.16
₹53.85
77
Rev-Margin DCF
₹20.78
₹36.83
₹55.89
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹29.10
₹29.77
₹32.05
71
ROIC Compounder
₹18.69
₹22.40
₹25.60
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹30.40
₹43.43
₹56.46
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability
40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−30.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.5% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $57.82 | $29.03 | −50% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $161.41 | $90.80 | −44% |
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP | CHF 7,540 | CHF 11,708 | +55% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,062 | CHF 654.80 | −38% |
| Cofco Sugar Holding 600737 | ¥14.75 | ¥10.01 | −32% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 106,900 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +90% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $21.64 | −45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.76 | ¥8.53 | −55% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹649.05 | ₹160.97 | −75% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 23,000 KRW | 51,062 KRW | +122% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rana Sugars Limited (507490) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹30.80 versus a price of ₹13.06, about +136% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 507490?
Our model-based fair value for Rana Sugars Limited is ₹30.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹13.06.
What is the quality score of 507490?
Rana Sugars Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹30.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹17.34, optimistic scenario ₹48.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rana Sugars Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹30.80, about +136% upside versus a price of ₹13.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹17.34, optimistic scenario ₹48.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Rana Sugars Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹12.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rana Sugars Limited it is ₹30.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹13.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rana Sugars Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 507490 trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹13.06, fair value ₹30.80, a gap of about +136% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 507490?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹13.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹30.80). For Rana Sugars Limited the two are ₹17.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rana Sugars Limited worth?
The market values Rana Sugars Limited at about ₹871M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹13.06; our models calculate a fair value of ₹30.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 507490?
Our models span a range for Rana Sugars Limited: cautious scenario ₹17.34, base ₹30.80, optimistic ₹48.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹13.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 507490?
Rana Sugars Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹30.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rana Sugars Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 507490 from its 52-week high?
Rana Sugars Limited trades at ₹13.06, about 18% below its 52-week high of ₹15.92 and 22% above the low of ₹10.72 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹30.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rana Sugars Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Goods) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rana Sugars Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹13.06, calculated fair value ₹30.80 (+136%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 507490 calculated?
We run Rana Sugars Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹30.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rana Sugars Limited currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹13.06. Our model-based fair value is ₹30.80, about +136% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rana Sugars Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹17.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (₹17.34 to ₹48.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Rana Sugars Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
The market capitalisation of Rana Sugars Limited is ₹871M (≈ $9.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Earnings per share at Rana Sugars Limited are ₹18.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
The net margin of Rana Sugars Limited is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rana Sugars Limited is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
The operating margin of Rana Sugars Limited is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rana Sugars Limited (507490)?
Revenue at Rana Sugars Limited is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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