Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD MYR 6.54, price MYR 2.30, upside +184.4%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.26 MYR – 3.15 MYR · fair‑value band 3.90 MYR – 8.50 MYR · the 2.30 MYR price screens below the 6.54 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad engages in the exploration, development, and sale of oil and gas in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, Brunei, Australia, and Vietnam. The company invests and provides project management, technical, and other services related to the oil and gas exploration and production industry.
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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad engages in the exploration, development, and sale of oil and gas in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, Brunei, Australia, and Vietnam. The company invests and provides project management, technical, and other services related to the oil and gas exploration and production industry. It is also involved in the provision of electric power generated from renewable sources, including the installation, operation, maintenance, shutdown, and sale of electricity to the grid, as well as other services related to the renewable energy industry. In addition, the company provides turnaround and associated services related to oil and gas production, storage facilities, and installations or platforms. Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Stock analysis
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) currently trades at 2.30 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.54 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 64.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 8.12 MYR per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the 2.30 MYR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.52 MYR, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.90 MYR (bear) to 8.50 MYR (bull), the price of 2.30 MYR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD reported revenue of 2.3B MYR in FY2025 versus 805M MYR in FY2021, a compound +30.5%/yr. Reported net income was 117M MYR in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8B MYR (≈ $431M) · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) 0.3300 MYR · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 184%, 5199 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3.90 MYRFair Value 6.54 MYRBull 8.50 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2250 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +72.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+46.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.69% → 53%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside+197% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hibiscus Petroleum BHD Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5199
Frequently asked questions
Is Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.54 MYR versus a price of 2.30 MYR, about +184% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5199?
Our model-based fair value for Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 6.54 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.30 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5199?
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.54 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.90 MYR, optimistic scenario 8.50 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hibiscus Petroleum BHD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.54 MYR, about +184% upside versus a price of 2.30 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 3.90 MYR, optimistic scenario 8.50 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hibiscus Petroleum BHD pay a dividend?
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hibiscus Petroleum BHD would have to grow free cash flow by +4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5199 use?
Our models discount Hibiscus Petroleum BHD at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hibiscus Petroleum BHD that is +4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD grew +29.3 % a year. The price currently implies +4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (+4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.14 %: that much free cash flow Hibiscus Petroleum BHD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hibiscus Petroleum BHD it is 6.54 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 2.30 MYR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hibiscus Petroleum BHD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 5199 trades below its calculated fair value: price 2.30 MYR, fair value 6.54 MYR, a gap of about +184% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5199?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.30 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.54 MYR). For Hibiscus Petroleum BHD the two are 4.24 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hibiscus Petroleum BHD worth?
The market values Hibiscus Petroleum BHD at about 1.8B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 2.30 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 6.54 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5199?
Our models span a range for Hibiscus Petroleum BHD: cautious scenario 3.90 MYR, base 6.54 MYR, optimistic 8.50 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 2.30 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5199?
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6.54 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 14.7, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 5199?
The PEG ratio of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 14.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5199 from its 52-week high?
Hibiscus Petroleum BHD trades at 2.30 MYR, about 5% below its 52-week high of 2.41 MYR and 69% above the low of 1.36 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.54 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hibiscus Petroleum BHD?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hibiscus Petroleum BHD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 2.30 MYR, calculated fair value 6.54 MYR (+184%), Quality Score 46/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5199 calculated?
We run Hibiscus Petroleum BHD through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6.54 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hibiscus Petroleum BHD currently trades 184 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 2.30 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 6.54 MYR, about +184% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hibiscus Petroleum BHD right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (3.90 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (3.90 MYR to 8.50 MYR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD
How large is the market capitalisation of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The market capitalisation of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 1.8B MYR (≈ $431M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Earnings per share at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD are 0.3300 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The dividend yield of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 4.6% (payout 31.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The net margin of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
The operating margin of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Revenue at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199)?
Earnings per share at Hibiscus Petroleum BHD are growing −11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hibiscus Petroleum BHD (5199) carry?
The net debt of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD is 780M MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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