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TCPL Packaging Limited (523301) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of TCPL Packaging Limited ₹2,672, price ₹3,949, upside -32.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
TCPL Packaging Limited
523301 · BSEWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value ₹2,672 · Overvalued (−32.3%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!1.1% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹440.51 – ₹4,602 · fair‑value band ₹2,004 – ₹3,340 · the ₹3,949 price screens above the ₹2,672 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
TCPL Packaging Limited manufactures and sells packaging products in India. It offers folding cartons, printed blanks and outers, litho-lamination products, plastic cartons, blister packs, and shelf-ready packaging products, as well as printed cork-tipping papers, laminates, sleeves, and wrap-around labels. The company also exports its products.
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TCPL Packaging Limited manufactures and sells packaging products in India. It offers folding cartons, printed blanks and outers, litho-lamination products, plastic cartons, blister packs, and shelf-ready packaging products, as well as printed cork-tipping papers, laminates, sleeves, and wrap-around labels. The company also exports its products. It serves the tobacco, FMCG, food and beverage, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd. TCPL Packaging Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
TCPL Packaging Limited (523301) currently trades at ₹3,949, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2,672, 32.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹2,992 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹3,949 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹332.73, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹2,004 (bear) to ₹3,340 (bull), the price of ₹3,949 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Goods sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
TCPL Packaging Limited reported revenue of ₹17.7B in FY2025 versus ₹9.0B in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.4B in FY2025, compounding +43.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.4B (≈ $35.1M) · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) ₹37.09 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Goods peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −32%, 523301 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹2,004
Fair Value ₹2,672
Bull ₹3,340
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹33.09 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
₹1,764
₹2,087
₹2,366
74
Owner Earnings
₹563.19
₹1,315
₹2,649
71
Residual Income
₹957.51
₹1,370
₹2,715
71
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
₹563.19
₹1,315
₹2,649
71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹1,069
₹5,701
₹7,897
63
Lynch FV
₹1,573
₹2,247
₹2,922
61
PEG = 1.0
₹1,573
₹2,247
₹2,922
57
EPV
₹1,764
₹2,087
₹2,366
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
₹193.22
₹385.00
₹583.00
67
DDM Multi-Stage
₹193.22
₹332.73
₹406.39
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹2,004
₹2,672
₹3,340
63
P/S Multiple
₹2,004
₹2,672
₹3,340
58
P/B Multiple
₹1,592
₹2,122
₹2,653
55
EV/EBIT
₹2,344
₹3,218
₹4,093
66
EV/EBITDA
₹2,216
₹3,048
₹3,880
67
EV/Revenue
₹1,762
₹2,638
₹3,513
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹353.72
₹473.98
₹707.43
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹957.51
₹1,370
₹2,715
71
ROIC Compounder
₹2,084
₹2,910
₹3,975
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹2,095
₹2,992
₹3,890
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
523301 screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $46.41 | $29.85 | −36% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $234.52 | $130.10 | −45% |
| International Paper Company IP | $32.52 | $21.53 | −34% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $56.83 | $47.81 | −16% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $170.78 | $125.35 | −27% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $108.06 | $121.85 | +13% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €10.45 | €9.66 | −8% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.37 | CHF 9.59 | −28% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.00 | ¥31.90 | +10% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $50.06 | $61.98 | +24% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is TCPL Packaging Limited (523301) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2,672 versus a price of ₹3,949, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 523301?
Our model-based fair value for TCPL Packaging Limited is ₹2,672 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹3,949.
What is the quality score of 523301?
TCPL Packaging Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹2,672 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹2,004, optimistic scenario ₹3,340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TCPL Packaging Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹2,672, about −32% upside versus a price of ₹3,949 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹2,004, optimistic scenario ₹3,340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
TCPL Packaging Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹8.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TCPL Packaging Limited pay a dividend?
TCPL Packaging Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TCPL Packaging Limited it is ₹2,672 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹3,949. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TCPL Packaging Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 523301 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹3,949, fair value ₹2,672, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 523301?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹3,949); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹2,672). For TCPL Packaging Limited the two are ₹1,277 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TCPL Packaging Limited worth?
The market values TCPL Packaging Limited at about ₹3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹3,949; our models calculate a fair value of ₹2,672 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 523301?
Our models span a range for TCPL Packaging Limited: cautious scenario ₹2,004, base ₹2,672, optimistic ₹3,340 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹3,949). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 523301?
TCPL Packaging Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹2,672 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Balance-sheet figures for TCPL Packaging Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 523301 from its 52-week high?
TCPL Packaging Limited trades at ₹3,949, about 11% below its 52-week high of ₹4,427 and 79% above the low of ₹2,201 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹2,672 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TCPL Packaging Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Goods) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TCPL Packaging Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹3,949, calculated fair value ₹2,672 (−32%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 523301 calculated?
We run TCPL Packaging Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹2,672, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TCPL Packaging Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹3,949. Our model-based fair value is ₹2,672, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TCPL Packaging Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹3,340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of TCPL Packaging Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The market capitalisation of TCPL Packaging Limited is ₹3.4B (≈ $35.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TCPL Packaging Limited is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Earnings per share at TCPL Packaging Limited are ₹37.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The dividend yield of TCPL Packaging Limited is 1.1% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The net margin of TCPL Packaging Limited is 8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TCPL Packaging Limited is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TCPL Packaging Limited is 12.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
The operating margin of TCPL Packaging Limited is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Revenue at TCPL Packaging Limited is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TCPL Packaging Limited (523301)?
Earnings per share at TCPL Packaging Limited are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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