PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD S$0.02, price S$0.03, upside -19.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Progen Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation systems primarily in Singapore. It operates through four segments: Products and Installation, Servicing and Maintenance, Rental, and Property Development.
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Progen Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation systems primarily in Singapore. It operates through four segments: Products and Installation, Servicing and Maintenance, Rental, and Property Development. The company is also involved in the trading and contracting of engineering works, cooling towers, air-conditioning, and mechanical ventilation systems; service and repair of air-conditioners, cooling towers, and other cooling equipment; and supply and installation of cooling fans, cooling towers, and air-conditioners. In addition, it engages in the sale and distribution of household electrical appliances and air-conditioners; leasing of leasehold buildings and office spaces; and development and sale of residential properties. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) currently trades at 0.0270 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0218 SGD, 19.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.0400 SGD per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the 0.0270 SGD price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.0100 SGD, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD reported revenue of 5.1M SGD in FY2025 versus 3.9M SGD in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −693K SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 10.5M SGD (≈ $8.2M) · P/S ratio 2.01 · Net margin −13.7% · Return on equity −2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin 3.6% · Revenue (TTM) 5.1M SGD · Revenue growth (YoY) −27.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −19%, 583 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.0218 SGDFair Value 0.0218 SGDBull 0.0218 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−95.2% (2020) → −6.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−19.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0218 SGD versus a price of 0.0270 SGD, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 583?
Our model-based fair value for PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is 0.0218 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.0270 SGD.
What is the quality score of 583?
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0218 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 3 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0218 SGD, about −19% upside versus a price of 0.0270 SGD (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.1M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD it is 0.0218 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.0270 SGD. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 583 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.0270 SGD, fair value 0.0218 SGD, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 583?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.0270 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0218 SGD). For PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD the two are 0.0052 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD worth?
The market values PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD at about 10.5M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.0270 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0218 SGD per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
Balance-sheet figures for PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −2.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 583 from its 52-week high?
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD trades at 0.0270 SGD, about 21% below its 52-week high of 0.0340 SGD and 13% above the low of 0.0240 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0218 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.0270 SGD, calculated fair value 0.0218 SGD (−19%), Quality Score 46/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 583 calculated?
We run PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0218 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 0.0270 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.0218 SGD, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0218 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The market capitalisation of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is 10.5M SGD (≈ $8.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is 2.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The net margin of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is −13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
The operating margin of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
Revenue at PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is growing −27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583)?
Earnings per share at PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD are growing −72.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) generate?
The free cash flow of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is −130K SGD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) carry?
The net debt of PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD is 1.4M SGD (fiscal year 2022). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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