PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SG · Market cap 10.2M SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 0.0206 SGD to 0.0213 SGD (+3.2%) since Aug 9, 2026. Share price +12.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0238 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (0.0213 SGD to 0.0238 SGD), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0220 SGD – 0.0550 SGD · fair‑value band 0.0213 SGD – 0.0238 SGD · the 0.0280 SGD price screens above the 0.0213 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD (583) currently trades at 0.0280 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0213 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 23.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD generated revenue of 5.1M SGD at a net margin of -13.7%. Revenue declined 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 1.4M SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.0213 SGD (bear case) to 0.0238 SGD (bull case); at 0.0280 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -24%, 583 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.0400 SGD) versus Dividend Discount (0.0100 SGD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Progen Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation systems primarily in Singapore. It operates through four segments: Products and Installation, Servicing and Maintenance, Rental, and Property Development.
Full company description
Progen Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation systems primarily in Singapore. It operates through four segments: Products and Installation, Servicing and Maintenance, Rental, and Property Development. The company is also involved in the trading and contracting of engineering works, cooling towers, air-conditioning, and mechanical ventilation systems; service and repair of air-conditioners, cooling towers, and other cooling equipment; and supply and installation of cooling fans, cooling towers, and air-conditioners. In addition, it engages in the sale and distribution of household electrical appliances and air-conditioners; leasing of leasehold buildings and office spaces; and development and sale of residential properties. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD reported revenue of 5.1M SGD in FY2025 versus 3.9M SGD in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −693K SGD in FY2025.
583 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 246 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $480.20 | $208.50 | -57% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $152.79 | $44.75 | -71% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $63.08 | $16.85 | -73% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €84.24 | €97.97 | +16% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,405 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 38.91 | kr 25.37 | -35% |
| Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited 000786 | ¥18.73 | ¥31.73 | +69% |
| Moon Environment Technology Co 000811 | ¥42.22 | ¥11.94 | -72% |
| The Supreme Industries Limited SUPREMEIND | ₹3,460 | ₹1,376 | -60% |
| Aditya Infotech Limited CPPLUS | ₹3,343 | ₹763.08 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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