China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co (600125) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 7.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥8.45 to ¥4.88 (−42.2%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥3.61 (bear) to ¥6.10 (bull), base ¥4.88. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.38 – ¥7.16 · fair‑value band ¥3.61 – ¥6.10 · the ¥5.44 price screens above the ¥4.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co (600125) currently trades at ¥5.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.88, implying the stock looks roughly 10.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co generated revenue of 11.5B CNY at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.61 (bear case) to ¥6.10 (bull case); at ¥5.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -10%, 600125 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥10.35) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd. provides railway transportation services in China and internationally. The company offers railway special container logistics services, such as transportation of steel, grain, ore, cement, cold and liquid chemicals, and other transportation services.
Full company description
China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd. provides railway transportation services in China and internationally. The company offers railway special container logistics services, such as transportation of steel, grain, ore, cement, cold and liquid chemicals, and other transportation services. It also offers railway freight, port logistics, warehousing, and freight forwarding services. In addition, the company is involved in real estate development activities, logistics and supply chain operations, and consulting services. China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Dalian, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥11.5B in FY2025 versus ¥17.9B in FY2021, a compound −10.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥525M in FY2025, compounding +11.7%/yr from FY2021.
600125 screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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