Harbin Air Conditioning Co (600202) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 1.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +9.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.7800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥0.3000 to ¥0.7800). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥7.50 · fair‑value band ¥0.3000 – ¥0.7800 · the ¥5.00 price screens above the ¥0.5700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
Analysis
Harbin Air Conditioning Co (600202) currently trades at ¥5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 88.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Harbin Air Conditioning Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of -0.9%. Revenue declined 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.5%. Net debt stands at 509M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.3000 (bear case) to ¥0.7800 (bull case); at ¥5.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -89%, 600202 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.13) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Harbin Air Conditioning Co.,Ltd. designs, manufactures, and sells petrochemical and power station air coolers in the People's Republic of China, India, and internationally. The company also provides high, medium, and low-pressure air coolers; nuclear power plant air handling unit; other industrial air conditioning products; and other customized products.
Full company description
Harbin Air Conditioning Co.,Ltd. designs, manufactures, and sells petrochemical and power station air coolers in the People's Republic of China, India, and internationally. The company also provides high, medium, and low-pressure air coolers; nuclear power plant air handling unit; other industrial air conditioning products; and other customized products. Its products are applied to industrial markets, such as polysilicon, green hydrogen, solar thermal power generation, and energy storage. The company was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Harbin, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harbin Air Conditioning Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥853M in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥7.3M in FY2025, compounding −42.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600202 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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