Gemdale Corp (600383) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gemdale Corp ¥6.28, price ¥2.51, upside +150.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.09 – ¥14.40 · fair‑value band ¥4.68 – ¥6.28 · the ¥2.51 price screens below the ¥6.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gemdale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China and internationally.
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Gemdale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China and internationally. The company is involved in the investment, development, operation, and management of industrial parks, commercial offices, rental housing, and residential properties; and provision of construction management, project management, and consulting services. It also engages in commercial service; urban service; space technology; catering service; insurance; and sports businesses. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Gemdale Corp (600383) currently trades at ¥2.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.28, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ¥4.68 (bear) to ¥6.28 (bull), the price of ¥2.51 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Gemdale Corp reported revenue of 35.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 98.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −22.4%/yr. Reported net income was −13.3B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 11.3B CNY (≈ $1.7B) · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) ¥−2.94 · Net margin −37.0% · Return on equity −16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 7.4% · Revenue (TTM) 37.7B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 150%, 600383 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.68Fair Value ¥6.28Bull ¥6.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−52.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.9% (1998) → 2.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+150% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−35% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gemdale Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600383
Frequently asked questions
Is Gemdale Corp (600383) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.28 versus a price of ¥2.51, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600383?
Our model-based fair value for Gemdale Corp is ¥6.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.51.
What is the quality score of 600383?
Gemdale Corp has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.68, optimistic scenario ¥6.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gemdale Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.28, about +150% upside versus a price of ¥2.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.68, optimistic scenario ¥6.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Gemdale Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 37.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gemdale Corp it is ¥6.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥2.51. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gemdale Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600383 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥2.51, fair value ¥6.28, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600383?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.28). For Gemdale Corp the two are ¥3.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gemdale Corp worth?
The market values Gemdale Corp at about 11.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600383?
Our models span a range for Gemdale Corp: cautious scenario ¥4.68, base ¥6.28, optimistic ¥6.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥2.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 600383?
The PEG ratio of Gemdale Corp is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gemdale Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −16.7%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600383 from its 52-week high?
Gemdale Corp trades at ¥2.51, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥4.38 and 20% above the low of ¥2.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gemdale Corp?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gemdale Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥2.51, calculated fair value ¥6.28 (+150%), Quality Score 34/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600383 calculated?
We run Gemdale Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gemdale Corp currently trades 150 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥2.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.28, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gemdale Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥4.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Gemdale Corp (600383) come from?
Earnings per share at Gemdale Corp grew −0.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.3 %, EBIT margin −7.8 %, tax rate −3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gemdale Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The market capitalisation of Gemdale Corp is 11.3B CNY (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gemdale Corp is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Earnings per share at Gemdale Corp are ¥−2.94. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The net margin of Gemdale Corp is −37.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gemdale Corp is −16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gemdale Corp is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gemdale Corp (600383)?
The operating margin of Gemdale Corp is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Revenue at Gemdale Corp is growing +32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gemdale Corp (600383)?
Earnings per share at Gemdale Corp are growing +282% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gemdale Corp (600383) generate?
The free cash flow of Gemdale Corp is −500M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gemdale Corp (600383) carry?
The net debt of Gemdale Corp is 23.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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