Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.58 – ¥18.24 · fair‑value band ¥5.25 – ¥29.05 · the ¥5.68 price screens below the ¥12.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally.
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Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally. It is also involved new home sales agency, digital marketing, existing home brokerage, and channel distribution; architectural design; operation of convention and exhibitions; private equity fund management; investment in healthcare; and silk business. In addition . the company operates and manages shopping malls, hotels, tourist spots, and diversified urban services, as well as golf courses, theme parks, natural ecological landscape resorts, cultural tourism destinations, and tourism real estate properties. Further, it provides property services, as well as long-term and short-term rental apartments. Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) currently trades at ¥5.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.60, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥17.89 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥5.68 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥1.46, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥5.25 (bear) to ¥29.05 (bull), the price of ¥5.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 308B CNY in FY2025 versus 285B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −56.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 67.4B CNY (≈ $10.1B) · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 122%, 600048 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.25Fair Value ¥12.60Bull ¥29.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−47.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−48.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−48% vs −23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 572 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+96% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600048
Frequently asked questions
Is Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.60 versus a price of ¥5.68, about +122% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600048?
Our model-based fair value for Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is ¥12.60 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.68.
What is the quality score of 600048?
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.60 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.25, optimistic scenario ¥29.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.60, about +122% upside versus a price of ¥5.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.25, optimistic scenario ¥29.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 300B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600048 use?
Our models discount Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.81 %: that much free cash flow Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd it is ¥12.60 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥5.68. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 600048 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.68, fair value ¥12.60, a gap of about +122% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600048?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.60). For Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd the two are ¥6.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd at about 67.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.68; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600048?
Our models span a range for Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.25, base ¥12.60, optimistic ¥29.05 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥5.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 600048?
The PEG ratio of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600048 from its 52-week high?
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd trades at ¥5.68, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥8.55 and 11% above the low of ¥5.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥5.68, calculated fair value ¥12.60 (+122%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600048 calculated?
We run Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥12.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd currently trades 122 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ¥5.68. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.60, about +122% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥5.25 to ¥29.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) come from?
Earnings per share at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd grew −1.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin −10.5 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The market capitalisation of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 67.4B CNY (≈ $10.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Earnings per share at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd are ¥−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The dividend yield of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The net margin of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
The operating margin of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Revenue at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048)?
Earnings per share at Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd are growing +19.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (600048) carry?
The net debt of Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd is 152B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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