Poly Developments and Holdings (600048) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 61.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥10.60 to ¥10.27 (−3.1%) since Jul 25, 2026. Share price +15.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 95% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥2.38 to ¥10.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.58 – ¥18.24 · fair‑value band ¥2.38 – ¥10.27 · the ¥5.27 price screens below the ¥10.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Poly Developments and Holdings (600048) currently trades at ¥5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.27, implying the stock looks roughly 94.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Poly Developments and Holdings generated revenue of 300B CNY at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue declined 15.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at 152B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.38 (bear case) to ¥10.27 (bull case); at ¥5.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 95%, 600048 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥84.28) versus Multiples (¥6.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally.
Full company description
Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally. It is also involved new home sales agency, digital marketing, existing home brokerage, and channel distribution; architectural design; operation of convention and exhibitions; private equity fund management; investment in healthcare; and silk business. In addition . the company operates and manages shopping malls, hotels, tourist spots, and diversified urban services, as well as golf courses, theme parks, natural ecological landscape resorts, cultural tourism destinations, and tourism real estate properties. Further, it provides property services, as well as long-term and short-term rental apartments. Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Poly Developments and Holdings reported revenue of ¥308B in FY2025 versus ¥285B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0B in FY2025, compounding −56.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 592 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 147,000 VND | 147,415 VND | +0% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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