EN DE

Poly Developments and Holdings (600048) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · CN · Market cap 61.4B CNY

PD Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 · SHG
Price¥5.27
Fair Value¥10.27
Upside+94.9%
Quality46/100
Watch Poly Developments and Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.68% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥2.38 – ¥10.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥10.60 to ¥10.27 (−3.1%) since Jul 25, 2026. Share price +15.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 95% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (¥2.38 to ¥10.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥18.24 ¥4.58 Fair Value ¥10.27 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.58 – ¥18.24 · fair‑value band ¥2.38 – ¥10.27 · the ¥5.27 price screens below the ¥10.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Poly Developments and Holdings (600048) currently trades at ¥5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.27, implying the stock looks roughly 94.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Poly Developments and Holdings generated revenue of 300B CNY at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue declined 15.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at 152B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.38 (bear case) to ¥10.27 (bull case); at ¥5.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 95%, 600048 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥26.10 ¥112.26 ¥271.50 80
Residual Income ¥51.16 ¥47.72 ¥33.31 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥31.23 ¥87.53 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥29.49 ¥95.12 ¥272.96 38
Owner Earnings ¥37.22 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥29.16 ¥89.18 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.1884 ¥46.45 ¥117.68 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥1.98 ¥47.25 ¥107.36 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥8.76 ¥61.38 ¥150.38 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥9.09 ¥37.22 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.73 ¥18.00 ¥25.16 54
Lynch FV ¥5.23 ¥7.49 ¥9.70 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥5.23 ¥7.49 ¥9.70 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥48.05 ¥99.92 ¥158.53 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥48.05 ¥84.28 ¥104.87 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥6.08 ¥8.06 ¥10.08 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.14 ¥6.88 ¥8.57 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.14 ¥6.88 ¥8.57 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.42 ¥26.33 53
EV/EBITDA ¥5.75 ¥21.72 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.32 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥37.78 ¥50.60 ¥75.52 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥26.10 ¥112.26 ¥271.50 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥31.23 ¥87.53 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥51.16 ¥47.72 ¥33.31 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.16 ¥10.27 ¥13.33 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥84.28) versus Multiples (¥6.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 294B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.7%
Net margin -0.1%
Return on equity 0.8%
Free cash flow 14.7B CNY FY2025
Operating margin 4.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0100
Dividend yield 0.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.8%
Net debt 152B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally.

Full company description

Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally. It is also involved new home sales agency, digital marketing, existing home brokerage, and channel distribution; architectural design; operation of convention and exhibitions; private equity fund management; investment in healthcare; and silk business. In addition . the company operates and manages shopping malls, hotels, tourist spots, and diversified urban services, as well as golf courses, theme parks, natural ecological landscape resorts, cultural tourism destinations, and tourism real estate properties. Further, it provides property services, as well as long-term and short-term rental apartments. Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Poly Developments and Holdings reported revenue of ¥308B in FY2025 versus ¥285B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0B in FY2025, compounding −56.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
308B CNY
Latest YoY
−1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+32.6%
Revenue +2.0%/yr
FY21 ¥285B
FY22 ¥281B
FY23 ¥347B
FY24 ¥312B
FY25 ¥308B
Net income −56.0%/yr
FY21 ¥27.4B
FY22 ¥18.3B
FY23 ¥12.1B
FY24 ¥5.0B
FY25 ¥1.0B

Watch 600048: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poly Developments and Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600048

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 592 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside +95% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth -9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.41× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.72× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 48
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 3 · sector 9
HEALTH 30 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 14 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 147,000 VND 147,415 VND +0%
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%

Compare Poly Developments and Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Real Estate stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Poly Developments and Holdings (600048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.27 versus a price of ¥5.27, about +95% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600048?
Our model-based fair value for Poly Developments and Holdings is ¥10.27 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.27.
What is the quality score of 600048?
Poly Developments and Holdings has a Quality Score of 46/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Poly Developments and Holdings (600048)?
Poly Developments and Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 300B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600048?
The net profit margin of Poly Developments and Holdings is about -0.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Poly Developments and Holdings pay a dividend?
Poly Developments and Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Poly Developments and Holdings and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.