Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co (600395) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 10.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥2.61 to ¥4.07 (+55.8%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +6.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.52 – ¥10.86 · fair‑value band ¥3.05 – ¥4.75 · the ¥4.97 price screens above the ¥4.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co (600395) currently trades at ¥4.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.07, implying the stock looks roughly 18.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co generated revenue of 9.8B CNY at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 20.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.05 (bear case) to ¥4.75 (bull case); at ¥4.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -18%, 600395 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥3.49) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.31). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.,Ltd. engages in mining, washing, processing, and selling of coal in China and internationally. The company offers coking coal, PCI coal, etc. for use in the steel and chemical industries; and thermal coal for use in power, building materials, and other industries.
Full company description
Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.,Ltd. engages in mining, washing, processing, and selling of coal in China and internationally. The company offers coking coal, PCI coal, etc. for use in the steel and chemical industries; and thermal coal for use in power, building materials, and other industries. It also invests in, constructs, and generates electricity through coal-fired, wind, and photovoltaic. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Liupanshui, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co reported revenue of ¥9.8B in FY2025 versus ¥9.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥329M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2021.
600395 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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