Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd stock ¥0.82, price ¥4.74, that is 82.7% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.48 – ¥11.37 · fair‑value band ¥0.6200 – ¥1.03 · the ¥4.74 price screens above the ¥0.8200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, processing, and sale of fertilizers in China and internationally. The company offers nitrogen, phosphate, potash, compound, blended, organic, and microbial fertilizers.
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It also provides chemical products, including refined phosphoric acid; chemical raw materials; fine phosphates; hydrogen peroxide; phosphogypsum products; ammonia; and building, ecological, and environmental materials.
In addition, the company engages in real estate development and operation activities. It exports its products to South Korea, India, and Taiwan. Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Tongling, China.
Stock analysis
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470) currently trades at ¥4.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8200, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥1.54 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥4.74 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.6150, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.6200 (bear) to ¥1.03 (bull), the price of ¥4.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.3B CNY in FY2024 versus 4.8B CNY in FY2020, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 25.2M CNY in FY2024, compounding −37.8%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 2.5B CNY (≈ $373M) Small · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.9200 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin −7.7% · Return on equity −24.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −83%, 600470 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1100 to ¥6.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥0.6200Fair Value ¥0.8200Bull¥1.03
Price ¥4.74 · Downside -82.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31.0% vs −11.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 1%
Compare Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−82.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−20.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−5.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.08× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600470
Frequently asked questions
Is Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.8200 versus a price of ¥4.74, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600470?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is ¥0.8200 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.74.
What is the quality score of 600470?
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.8200 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.6200, optimistic scenario ¥1.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.8200, about 83% lower versus a price of ¥4.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.6200, optimistic scenario ¥1.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 2.5%.
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd it is ¥0.8200 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥4.74. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 600470 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.74, fair value ¥0.8200, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600470?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.8200). For Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd the two are ¥3.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd worth?
The market values Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd at about 2.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.74; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.8200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600470?
Our models span a range for Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.6200, base ¥0.8200, optimistic ¥1.03 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥4.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −24.1%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600470 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd trades at ¥4.74, about 48% below its 52-week high of ¥9.06 and 3% above the low of ¥4.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.8200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥4.74, calculated fair value ¥0.8200 (−83%), Quality Score 37/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600470 calculated?
We run Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥0.8200 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥4.74. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.8200, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is 2.5B CNY (≈ $373M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is 0.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd are ¥−0.9200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The net margin of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is −7.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is −24.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
The operating margin of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Revenue at Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd are growing −66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470) generate?
The free cash flow of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is −51.2M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd (600470) carry?
The net debt of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co Ltd is 594M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026