Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.48 – ¥41.00 · fair‑value band ¥12.98 – ¥24.05 · the ¥23.61 price screens above the ¥18.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and other non-ferrous metals in China.
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Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and other non-ferrous metals in China. The company offers gold, including gold concentrate, alloyed gold, and standard gold; and copper, silver, tellurium, platinum, ammonium perrhenate, and selenium as well as molybdenum, and sulfuric acid. It also engages in investment and management in the geological exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and non-ferrous metals; processing and sales of by-products from gold production; warehousing and sales of raw materials, fuels, and equipment required for gold production; research and development, and consulting services for gold production technology; production, processing, and wholesale of high-purity gold products; import and export business; and commodity exhibitions. Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd was founded in 2000 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) currently trades at ¥23.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥18.50, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥29.02 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥23.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.19, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥12.98 (bear) to ¥24.05 (bull), the price of ¥23.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd reported revenue of 79.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 56.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 114B CNY (≈ $17.1B) · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.30 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at −22%, 600489 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.98Fair Value ¥18.50Bull ¥24.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6113 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+27.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25% vs 42%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 11%
2025 sits 67% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 243 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Above median
Return on assets10% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth52% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥18.50 versus a price of ¥23.61, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600489?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is ¥18.50 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.61.
What is the quality score of 600489?
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥18.50 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.98, optimistic scenario ¥24.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥18.50, about −22% upside versus a price of ¥23.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.98, optimistic scenario ¥24.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600489 use?
Our models discount Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.58 %: that much free cash flow Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd it is ¥18.50 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥23.61. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 600489 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.61, fair value ¥18.50, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600489?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥18.50). For Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd the two are ¥5.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd worth?
The market values Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd at about 114B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.61; our models calculate a fair value of ¥18.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600489?
Our models span a range for Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.98, base ¥18.50, optimistic ¥24.05 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥23.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600489?
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥18.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 3.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 600489?
The PEG ratio of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600489 from its 52-week high?
Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd trades at ¥23.61, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥41.48 and 72% above the low of ¥13.73 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥18.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥23.61, calculated fair value ¥18.50 (−22%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600489 calculated?
We run Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥18.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ¥23.61. Our model-based fair value is ¥18.50, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (¥12.98 to ¥24.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) come from?
Earnings per share at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd grew +27.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +17.1 %, tax rate +5.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The market capitalisation of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 114B CNY (≈ $17.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Earnings per share at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd are ¥1.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The dividend yield of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 1.9% (payout 35.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The net margin of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
The operating margin of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Revenue at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is growing +52.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489)?
Earnings per share at Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd are growing +133% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd (600489) carry?
The net debt of Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd is 3.8B CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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