Zhongjin Gold Corp (600489) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 92.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +27.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥24.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥12.98 to ¥24.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.48 – ¥41.00 · fair‑value band ¥12.98 – ¥24.05 · the ¥25.11 price screens above the ¥17.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Zhongjin Gold Corp (600489) currently trades at ¥25.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.30, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongjin Gold Corp generated revenue of 86.8B CNY at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 52.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. Net debt stands at 3.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥12.98 (bear case) to ¥24.05 (bull case); at ¥25.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -31%, 600489 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥29.97) versus Asset-Based (¥4.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and other non-ferrous metals in China.
Full company description
Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and other non-ferrous metals in China. The company offers gold, including gold concentrate, alloyed gold, and standard gold; and copper, silver, tellurium, platinum, ammonium perrhenate, and selenium as well as molybdenum, and sulfuric acid. It also engages in investment and management in the geological exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of gold and non-ferrous metals; processing and sales of by-products from gold production; warehousing and sales of raw materials, fuels, and equipment required for gold production; research and development, and consulting services for gold production technology; production, processing, and wholesale of high-purity gold products; import and export business; and commodity exhibitions. Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd was founded in 2000 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhongjin Gold Corp reported revenue of ¥79.1B in FY2025 versus ¥56.1B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.9B in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.
600489 screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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