Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Gold Fields Ltd ZAR 347, price ZAR 595, upside -41.8%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R100.56 – R911.52 · fair‑value band R218.04 – R453.47 · the R595.27 price screens above the R346.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) currently trades at R595.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R346.50, 41.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R1,221 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the R595.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R104.44, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R218.04 (bear) to R453.47 (bull), the price of R595.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gold Fields Ltd reported revenue of $9.4B in FY2025 versus $4.2B in FY2021, a compound +22.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding +48.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 599B ZAC · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) R64.48 · Net margin 40.8% · Return on equity 51.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.2% · Operating margin 51.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −42%, GFI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R218.04Fair Value R346.50Bull R453.47
Price R595.27 · Upside -41.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+80.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.3% vs 35.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 49%
2025 sits 436% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 216 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−41.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)51.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth71.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF10.9× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.2× · Pricier than median
PEG11.29× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R346.50 versus a price of R595.27, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFI?
Our model-based fair value for Gold Fields Ltd is R346.50 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R595.27.
What is the quality score of GFI?
Gold Fields Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R346.50 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R218.04, optimistic scenario R453.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gold Fields Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R346.50, about −42% upside versus a price of R595.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R218.04, optimistic scenario R453.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Gold Fields Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gold Fields Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFI use?
Our models discount Gold Fields Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gold Fields Ltd that is +0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gold Fields Ltd grew +19.3 % a year. The price currently implies +0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gold Fields Ltd (+0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.33 %: that much free cash flow Gold Fields Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gold Fields Ltd it is R346.50 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R595.27. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gold Fields Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, GFI trades above its calculated fair value: price R595.27, fair value R346.50, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R595.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R346.50). For Gold Fields Ltd the two are R248.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gold Fields Ltd worth?
The market values Gold Fields Ltd at about 599B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R595.27; our models calculate a fair value of R346.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFI?
Our models span a range for Gold Fields Ltd: cautious scenario R218.04, base R346.50, optimistic R453.47 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R595.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFI?
Gold Fields Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R346.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.3, P/B 4.3, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GFI?
The PEG ratio of Gold Fields Ltd is 11.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gold Fields Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 51.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFI from its 52-week high?
Gold Fields Ltd trades at R595.27, about 35% below its 52-week high of R911.52 and 18% above the low of R504.51 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R346.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gold Fields Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gold Fields Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R595.27, calculated fair value R346.50 (−42%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFI calculated?
We run Gold Fields Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R346.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gold Fields Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was R595.27. Our model-based fair value is R346.50, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gold Fields Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R453.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (R218.04 to R453.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gold Fields Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The market capitalisation of Gold Fields Ltd is 599B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gold Fields Ltd is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Earnings per share at Gold Fields Ltd are R64.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The net margin of Gold Fields Ltd is 40.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gold Fields Ltd is 51.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gold Fields Ltd is 22.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
The operating margin of Gold Fields Ltd is 51.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Revenue at Gold Fields Ltd is growing +71.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)?
Earnings per share at Gold Fields Ltd are growing +196% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) carry?
The net debt of Gold Fields Ltd is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026