Jinxi Axle Company (600495) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.5000 to ¥0.8440 (+68.8%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.99 – ¥6.16 · fair‑value band ¥0.6246 – ¥1.05 · the ¥3.80 price screens above the ¥0.8440 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Jinxi Axle Company (600495) currently trades at ¥3.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8440, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jinxi Axle Company generated revenue of 1.2B CNY at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue declined 29.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 698M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.6246 (bear case) to ¥1.05 (bull case); at ¥3.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -78%, 600495 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.82) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jinxi Axle Company Limited engages in the research, development, and manufacturing of railway vehicles and related accessories, precision forging, and precision casting products in China.
Full company description
Jinxi Axle Company Limited engages in the research, development, and manufacturing of railway vehicles and related accessories, precision forging, and precision casting products in China. The company offers railway equipment, such as axle, railway car, and bogie; integrated urban sewage treatment machine; and perforated grille; waste incineration feeder; and10,000-ton sewage treatment equipment; electric flatbed truck, and circular heating furnace; K6 side frame, K6 Rocking Pillow, SCT side frame, and SCT rocking pillow; and grate bars, scraper, side grate bars, intermediate absorber side plate, end spacers, end grate bars, end casting, and upper cover plate. It also offers defense equipment, and smart fire protection. The company also exports its products. Jinxi Axle Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Taiyuan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jinxi Axle Company reported revenue of ¥1.3B in FY2025 versus ¥1.2B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥28.8M in FY2025, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2021.
600495 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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