Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd ¥0.84, price ¥4.07, upside -79.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.99 – ¥6.16 · fair‑value band ¥0.7258 – ¥1.05 · the ¥4.07 price screens above the ¥0.8440 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Jinxi Axle Company Limited engages in the research, development, and manufacturing of railway vehicles and related accessories, precision forging, and precision casting products in China.
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Jinxi Axle Company Limited engages in the research, development, and manufacturing of railway vehicles and related accessories, precision forging, and precision casting products in China. The company offers railway equipment, such as axle, railway car, and bogie; integrated urban sewage treatment machine; and perforated grille; waste incineration feeder; and10,000-ton sewage treatment equipment; electric flatbed truck, and circular heating furnace; K6 side frame, K6 Rocking Pillow, SCT side frame, and SCT rocking pillow; and grate bars, scraper, side grate bars, intermediate absorber side plate, end spacers, end grate bars, end casting, and upper cover plate. It also offers defense equipment, and smart fire protection. The company also exports its products. Jinxi Axle Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Taiyuan, China.
Stock analysis
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) currently trades at ¥4.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8440, implying the stock looks roughly 382.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥1.82 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥4.07 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.1800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7258 (bear) to ¥1.05 (bull), the price of ¥4.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 28.8M CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.9B CNY (≈ $734M) · P/E ratio 407.0 · P/S ratio 9.02 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −79%, 600495 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0900 to ¥1.82). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.7258Fair Value ¥0.8440Bull ¥1.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs −11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−30% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)407.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.52× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.18× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF367.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA74.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jinxi Axle Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600495
Frequently asked questions
Is Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.8440 versus a price of ¥4.07, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600495?
Our model-based fair value for Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is ¥0.8440 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.07.
What is the quality score of 600495?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.8440 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7258, optimistic scenario ¥1.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jinxi Axle Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.8440, about −79% upside versus a price of ¥4.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7258, optimistic scenario ¥1.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Jinxi Axle Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jinxi Axle Co Ltd it is ¥0.8440 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥4.07. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jinxi Axle Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 600495 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.07, fair value ¥0.8440, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600495?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.8440). For Jinxi Axle Co Ltd the two are ¥3.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jinxi Axle Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jinxi Axle Co Ltd at about 4.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.07; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.8440 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600495?
Our models span a range for Jinxi Axle Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.7258, base ¥0.8440, optimistic ¥1.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥4.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600495?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 407.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.8440 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 74.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600495 from its 52-week high?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd trades at ¥4.07, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥5.31 and 18% above the low of ¥3.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.8440 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jinxi Axle Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jinxi Axle Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥4.07, calculated fair value ¥0.8440 (−79%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600495 calculated?
We run Jinxi Axle Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.8440, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jinxi Axle Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥4.07. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.8440, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jinxi Axle Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) come from?
Earnings per share at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd grew −18.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.2 %, EBIT margin −9.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The market capitalisation of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 4.9B CNY (≈ $734M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 9.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Earnings per share at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd are ¥0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 407.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The dividend yield of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 180%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The net margin of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
The operating margin of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Revenue at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is growing −29.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495)?
Earnings per share at Jinxi Axle Co Ltd are growing −93.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) generate?
The free cash flow of Jinxi Axle Co Ltd is 2.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jinxi Axle Co Ltd (600495) hold?
Jinxi Axle Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 698M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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