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Keda Industrial Group (600499) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 27.3B CNY

KI Keda Industrial Group 600499 · SHG
Price¥14.26
Fair Value¥14.33
Upside+0.5%
Quality58/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 8.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.08% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
Moderate moat 59/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥9.42 – ¥17.91 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −6.9% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥9.42 to ¥17.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥24.22 ¥6.55 Fair Value ¥14.33 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.55 – ¥24.22 · fair‑value band ¥9.42 – ¥17.91 · the ¥14.26 price screens below the ¥14.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Keda Industrial Group (600499) currently trades at ¥14.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.33, implying the stock looks roughly 0.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Keda Industrial Group generated revenue of 18.3B CNY at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 25.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at 1.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥9.42 (bear case) to ¥17.91 (bull case); at ¥14.26, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 0%, 600499 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.64 ¥3.45 ¥6.88 80
Residual Income ¥5.85 ¥6.54 ¥10.65 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.92 ¥19.90 ¥36.28 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.73 ¥3.08 ¥6.91 38
Owner Earnings ¥4.39 ¥10.18 ¥22.25 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥8.92 ¥19.16 ¥38.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥12.57 ¥27.10 ¥53.18 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥7.87 ¥18.27 ¥31.82 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.31 ¥17.18 ¥31.94 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.33 ¥24.01 ¥51.91 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥6.04 ¥15.22 ¥31.44 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.64 ¥31.98 ¥44.85 54
Lynch FV ¥9.42 ¥13.45 ¥17.49 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥9.42 ¥13.45 ¥17.49 46
EPV ¥11.38 ¥13.31 ¥15.00 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.93 ¥6.09 ¥9.66 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.93 ¥5.14 ¥6.39 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.75 ¥14.33 ¥17.91 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.70 ¥11.60 ¥14.50 58
P/B Multiple ¥8.70 ¥11.60 ¥14.50 55
EV/EBIT ¥17.03 ¥22.78 ¥28.52 53
EV/EBITDA ¥17.23 ¥23.05 ¥28.86 54
EV/Revenue ¥11.21 ¥16.11 ¥21.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.28 ¥4.40 ¥6.57 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.64 ¥3.45 ¥6.88 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.92 ¥19.90 ¥36.28 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.85 ¥6.54 ¥10.65 76
ROIC Compounder ¥14.15 ¥21.19 ¥28.50 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥12.94 ¥18.48 ¥24.03 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥18.48) versus Growth DCF (¥3.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 18.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +25.5%
Net margin 8.4%
Return on equity 16.4%
Free cash flow 239M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 19.1
More key figures
Operating margin 22.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8200
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +64.7%
Net debt 1.8B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells ceramic machinery and building material in China. The company offers building materials machinery, clean coal gasification equipment, final-stage flue gas treatment equipment, high-end components and other equipment, building ceramics, and lithium-ion battery materials; and ceramic, stone, ACC, …

Full company description

Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells ceramic machinery and building material in China. The company offers building materials machinery, clean coal gasification equipment, final-stage flue gas treatment equipment, high-end components and other equipment, building ceramics, and lithium-ion battery materials; and ceramic, stone, ACC, lithium-ion battery materials, and hydraulic machineries. It is also involved in manufacturing ceramics, stone, and wall materials; research, development, and manufacturing of automation technologies and equipment; sales of mechanical and electrical spare parts, sand wheel grinding tools and materials, and ceramic products; and research, development, manufacturing, and sales of clean energy related mechanical equipment, related automation technologies and equipment, clean gas, and vapor and steam. In addition, the company engages in the provision of information technology, software development and sales, system integration, hardware equipment leasing and sales, and network technology consulting services; disposal of waste water, and solid and hazardous wastes, as well as the production and sales of the derivative products thereof; and import of raw and auxiliary materials, machinery and equipment, instruments and meters, spare parts, and related technologies. Further, it provides presses, kilns, polishing and squaring machines, and intelligent post-kiln complete production lines for tile production; ceramic tiles, glass, and sanitary ware; and hydraulic pump and bent-axis piston motors; as well as integrated solar-plus-storage solutions, such as power trading, integrated solar-storage-charging systems, distribution network operation, and carbon asset trading. The company was formerly known as Keda Clean Energy Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. in July 2020. Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Foshan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Keda Industrial Group reported revenue of ¥17.4B in FY2025 versus ¥9.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3B in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
17.4B CNY
Latest YoY
+38.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+19.0%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+24.3%
Revenue +15.4%/yr
FY21 ¥9.8B
FY22 ¥11.2B
FY23 ¥9.7B
FY24 ¥12.6B
FY25 ¥17.4B
Net income +6.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.0B
FY22 ¥4.3B
FY23 ¥2.1B
FY24 ¥1.0B
FY25 ¥1.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Keda Industrial Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600499

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +1% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.29× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.17× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.94× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 34 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 66 · sector 28
HEALTH 85 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 42 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

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Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 76,400 KRW 7,938 KRW -90%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Keda Industrial Group (600499) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.33 versus a price of ¥14.26, about +0% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 600499?
Our model-based fair value for Keda Industrial Group is ¥14.33 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥14.26.
What is the quality score of 600499?
Keda Industrial Group has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Keda Industrial Group (600499)?
Keda Industrial Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 18.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600499?
The net profit margin of Keda Industrial Group is about 8.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Keda Industrial Group pay a dividend?
Keda Industrial Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.08% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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