Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co (600509) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 10.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥3.75 to ¥3.05 (−18.7%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +0.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.13 – ¥10.33 · fair‑value band ¥2.26 – ¥3.77 · the ¥7.73 price screens above the ¥3.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co (600509) currently trades at ¥7.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.05, implying the stock looks roughly 60.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co generated revenue of 8.3B CNY at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue declined 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at 8.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.26 (bear case) to ¥3.77 (bull case); at ¥7.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -61%, 600509 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥5.93) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. engages in the production and supply of electricity and heat in China. The company is involved in the business of urban water supply, construction and other businesses; power grid integrating generation, supply, and dispatch; transmission and distribution network system, thermal power, photovoltaic power generation, …
Full company description
Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. engages in the production and supply of electricity and heat in China. The company is involved in the business of urban water supply, construction and other businesses; power grid integrating generation, supply, and dispatch; transmission and distribution network system, thermal power, photovoltaic power generation, hydropower, and other power supply structures. It also owns the centralized heating pipeline network, urban water supply pipeline network, and urban natural gas pipeline network. The company was formerly known as Xinjiang Tianfu Thermoelectric Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. in July 2014. Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shihezi, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co reported revenue of ¥8.4B in FY2025 versus ¥7.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥230M in FY2025.
600509 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €26.59 | €17.39 | -35% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.52 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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