Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A ¥20.57, price ¥3.23, upside +536.8%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.07 – ¥5.06 · fair‑value band ¥9.03 – ¥20.57 · the ¥3.23 price screens below the ¥20.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited engages natural gas development and utilization, and consulting services.
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Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited engages natural gas development and utilization, and consulting services. It is also involved in the sale of pipeline transportation services of natural gas and ethanol; provision of gas storage facilities leasing services; development, construction, operation, management, and heating of central heating projects; production, processing, and sales of natural gas stoves and instrumentation equipment; information technology development and consulting services; and import and export business, as well as operation, management, and related consultation activities of new energy enterprises. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Lianhua Synthetic Fiber Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited in July 2014. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Taiyuan, China.
Stock analysis
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) currently trades at ¥3.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.57, implying the stock looks roughly 84.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥6.92 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the ¥3.23 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ¥6.70, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥9.03 (bear) to ¥20.57 (bull), the price of ¥3.23 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A reported revenue of 15.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 12.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −285M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.2B CNY (≈ $930M) · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1500 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin −1.9% · Return on equity −1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 537%, 600617 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥9.03Fair Value ¥20.57Bull ¥20.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.3% (2020) → 4.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price.
Compare Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600617
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.57 versus a price of ¥3.23, about +537% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600617?
Our model-based fair value for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is ¥20.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.23.
What is the quality score of 600617?
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥20.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.03, optimistic scenario ¥20.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥20.57, about +537% upside versus a price of ¥3.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.03, optimistic scenario ¥20.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A pay a dividend?
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600617 use?
Our models discount Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.74 %: that much free cash flow Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A it is ¥20.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.23. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600617 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥3.23, fair value ¥20.57, a gap of about +537% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600617?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥20.57). For Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A the two are ¥17.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A worth?
The market values Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A at about 6.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.23; our models calculate a fair value of ¥20.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600617?
Our models span a range for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A: cautious scenario ¥9.03, base ¥20.57, optimistic ¥20.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.9%, debt of 3.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600617 from its 52-week high?
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A trades at ¥3.23, about 30% below its 52-week high of ¥4.64 and 23% above the low of ¥2.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥20.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.23, calculated fair value ¥20.57 (+537%), Quality Score 42/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600617 calculated?
We run Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥20.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A currently trades 537 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥3.23. Our model-based fair value is ¥20.57, about +537% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥9.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥9.03 to ¥20.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The market capitalisation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 6.2B CNY (≈ $930M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 0.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Earnings per share at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A are ¥−0.1500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The dividend yield of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 7.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The net margin of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is −1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
The operating margin of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Revenue at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is growing −12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617)?
Earnings per share at Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A (600617) carry?
The net debt of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Co Ltd A is 11.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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