Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd stock ¥5.65, price ¥4.48, upside +26.1%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.60 – ¥7.49 · fair‑value band ¥4.61 – ¥6.68 · the ¥4.48 price screens below the ¥5.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China.
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It constructs, develops, and operates rental, affordable, and commercial housing, as well as commercial offices, multi-story houses and villas, science and technology parks, and others.
The company is also involved in real estate management; renovation of old and dangerous buildings; indoor and outdoor building decoration; property management; real estate consulting; and mechanical equipment installation and maintenance.
In addition, it engages in the catering business; hotel management; sales of decoration, metal, wood, building, and chemical raw materials, hardware and electrical appliances, department stores, electrical equipment, and auto parts; and management and business services, as well as financial business, including futures brokerage, trusts, funds, and private securities.
The company was formerly known as Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. in July 2019. Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) currently trades at ¥4.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.65, implying the stock looks roughly 21% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥20.05 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥4.48 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.62, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥4.61 (bear) to ¥6.68 (bull), the price of ¥4.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 67.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M) Small · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2600 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at 26%, 600638 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥4.61Fair Value ¥5.65Bull¥6.68
Price ¥4.48 · Upside +26.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1957 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Per share before 2001divided by the spin-off factor 1.0412
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.6% vs −8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 11%
Compare Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+26.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Return on assets0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−19.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600638
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.65 versus a price of ¥4.48, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600638?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is ¥5.65 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.48.
What is the quality score of 600638?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.65 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.61, optimistic scenario ¥6.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.65, about +26% upside versus a price of ¥4.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.61, optimistic scenario ¥6.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.031 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 11.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 85.04 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd it is ¥5.65 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥4.48. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 600638 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥4.48, fair value ¥5.65, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.65). For Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd the two are ¥1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.48; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600638?
Our models span a range for Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.61, base ¥5.65, optimistic ¥6.68 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥4.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600638?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600638 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd trades at ¥4.48, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥7.49 and 3% above the low of ¥4.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥4.48, calculated fair value ¥5.65 (+26%), Quality Score 58/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600638 calculated?
We run Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥5.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd currently trades 21% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥4.48. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.65, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥4.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd grew −11.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin −13.1 %, tax rate −6.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 3.0B CNY (≈ $453M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd are ¥0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 11.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The net margin of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
The operating margin of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Revenue at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is growing −19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd are growing +205% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd is 1.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd (600638) hold?
Shanghai New Huang Pu Real Estate Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026