Shanghai Chengtou Holding (600649) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 9.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.07 – ¥5.68 · fair‑value band ¥1.97 – ¥2.62 · the ¥3.63 price screens above the ¥2.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Chengtou Holding (600649) currently trades at ¥3.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.62, implying the stock looks roughly 27.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Chengtou Holding generated revenue of 13.0B CNY at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 63.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at 34.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.97 (bear case) to ¥2.62 (bull case); at ¥3.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -28%, 600649 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥153.30) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.6000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China. The company develops, operates, manages, and invests in various properties, including commercial and rental housing, science and technology parks, urban historical and cultural protection blocks, and hotels.
Full company description
Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China. The company develops, operates, manages, and invests in various properties, including commercial and rental housing, science and technology parks, urban historical and cultural protection blocks, and hotels. It is also involved in equity investment; property management; and food and beverage management. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Chengtou Holding reported revenue of ¥14.4B in FY2025 versus ¥9.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥29.0B in FY2025, compounding +137.6%/yr from FY2021.
600649 screens 28% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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