Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd ¥8.50, price ¥4.06, upside +109.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.07 – ¥5.68 · fair‑value band ¥2.76 – ¥18.56 · the ¥4.06 price screens below the ¥8.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China. The company develops, operates, manages, and invests in various properties, including commercial and rental housing, science and technology parks, urban historical and cultural protection blocks, and hotels.
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Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in China. The company develops, operates, manages, and invests in various properties, including commercial and rental housing, science and technology parks, urban historical and cultural protection blocks, and hotels. It is also involved in equity investment; property management; and food and beverage management. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) currently trades at ¥4.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.50, implying the stock looks roughly 52.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥48.77 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥4.06 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥2.35, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.76 (bear) to ¥18.56 (bull), the price of ¥4.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 14.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 29.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +137.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.1B CNY (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 36.9 · P/S ratio 74.4 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 109%, 600649 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.76Fair Value ¥8.50Bull ¥18.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0529 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.0% vs −15.7%, steady
Profit margin 1994 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.63% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+109.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)23.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−63.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600649
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.50 versus a price of ¥4.06, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600649?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is ¥8.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.06.
What is the quality score of 600649?
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.76, optimistic scenario ¥18.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.50, about +109% upside versus a price of ¥4.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.76, optimistic scenario ¥18.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600649 use?
Our models discount Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd grew +17.0 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.22 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd it is ¥8.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥4.06. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 600649 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥4.06, fair value ¥8.50, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600649?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.50). For Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd the two are ¥4.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd at about 9.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.06; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600649?
Our models span a range for Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.76, base ¥8.50, optimistic ¥18.56 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥4.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600649?
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 600649?
The PEG ratio of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 1.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600649 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd trades at ¥4.06, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥5.64 and 18% above the low of ¥3.45 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥4.06, calculated fair value ¥8.50 (+109%), Quality Score 50/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600649 calculated?
We run Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥4.06. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.50, about +109% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥2.76 to ¥18.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd grew −19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −28.2 %, EBIT margin −16.2 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +31.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 9.1B CNY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 74.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd are ¥0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 1.0% (payout 36.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The net margin of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
The operating margin of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 23.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Revenue at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is growing −63.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd are growing −70.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd (600649) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai SMI Holding Co Ltd is 34.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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