Sichuan Swellfun Co (600779) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 14.0B CNY

Below-average quality, and screening another 52% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥18.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (¥9.72 to ¥18.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥26.61 – ¥150.15 · fair‑value band ¥9.72 – ¥18.05 · the ¥28.72 price screens above the ¥13.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Sichuan Swellfun Co (600779) currently trades at ¥28.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.88, implying the stock looks roughly 51.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Sichuan Swellfun Co generated revenue of 2.9B CNY at a net margin of 13.4%. Revenue declined 14.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 360M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥9.72 (bear case) to ¥18.05 (bull case); at ¥28.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -52%, 600779 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥38.31) versus Asset-Based (¥7.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Sichuan Swellfun Co.,Ltd produces and sells liquor and wine. The company offers products, such as First Fang, Shuijingfang Yuanmingqing, Shuijingfang Jingcui, Shuijingfang Diancang, Shuijingfang Jingtai, Shuijingfang Zhenniang No. 8, Shuijingfang Jingtai Zhencang, Shuijingfang Hongyun, Shuijingfang Meilan Zhuju, Xiaoshuijing, Tianhao Chen, and Shuijing Fu.

Full company description

Sichuan Swellfun Co.,Ltd produces and sells liquor and wine. The company offers products, such as First Fang, Shuijingfang Yuanmingqing, Shuijingfang Jingcui, Shuijingfang Diancang, Shuijingfang Jingtai, Shuijingfang Zhenniang No. 8, Shuijingfang Jingtai Zhencang, Shuijingfang Hongyun, Shuijingfang Meilan Zhuju, Xiaoshuijing, Tianhao Chen, and Shuijing Fu. It is also involved in manufacturing of refined tea. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sichuan Swellfun Co reported revenue of ¥3.0B in FY2025 versus ¥4.6B in FY2021, a compound −10.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥406M in FY2025, compounding −23.7%/yr from FY2021.

600779 screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.