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Data-driven stock valuation

Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zhonglu Co Ltd A stock ¥4.20, price ¥7.79, upside -46.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value 30%+ above price?No
  2. Quality 50+?Yes
  3. In an uptrend?No
  4. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Consumer Cyclical CN · ISIN CNE000000B75

ZC Zhonglu Co Ltd A logo Thin data Oct 26, 2026

Zhonglu Co Ltd A

600818 · SHG

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 53/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr in CNY)
Fair value ¥4.20 · Strongly overvalued (−46.1%)
Loss-making · -6.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 17/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥35.82 ¥5.28 Fair Value ¥4.20 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.28 – ¥35.82 · fair‑value band ¥4.20 – ¥4.27 · the ¥7.79 price screens above the ¥4.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 26, 2026.

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Company profile

Zhonglu. Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells bicycles in China.

Show moreShow less

The company offers bicycles and parts, power-assisted bicycles, baby carriages, manual wheelchairs, electric wheelchairs, and spare parts, electric tricycles, motorcycles and mopeds, other special vehicles, and other supporting products related to bicycles.

It also involved in import and export of goods; research, production, and sales of bowling equipment and related products; sales of polyurethane plastic related materials; rental of bicycles and power-assisted bicycles; and general cargo warehousing services.

In addition, the company engages in energy technology research and technology development services; wind energy prime mover equipment manufacturing; and software wholesale, leasing of non-residential real estate, as well as post-investment management of equity investments.

It also exports its products. Zhonglu. Co.,Ltd was founded in 1940 and is based in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818) currently trades at ¥7.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.20, 46.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 86/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥4.20 (bear) to ¥4.27 (bull), the price of ¥7.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Zhonglu Co Ltd A reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 722M CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was −57.3M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $450M) Small · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2000 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −6.9% · Return on equity −13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin −2.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, 600818 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥4.20 Fair Value ¥4.20 Bull ¥4.27
Price ¥7.79 · Upside -46.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA ¥0.6300 ¥0.6300 ¥0.6400 66
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7300 ¥0.9800 ¥1.46 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥0.6300 ¥0.6300 ¥0.6400 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7300 ¥0.9800 ¥1.46 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 77
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 98
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 71
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 48
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 24
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 90
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.9% (2020) → −2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

600818 screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −46.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −6.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −25.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.23× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)3 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$13.54 HK$29.38 +117% vs 600818
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$132.00 HK$207.44 +57% vs 600818
Mattel, Inc MAT $16.41 $21.77 +33% vs 600818
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $52.52 $65.18 +24% vs 600818
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,975 PLN 6,573 PLN +10% vs 600818
Fluidra, S.A FDR €18.06 €19.87 +10% vs 600818
Amer Sports, Inc AS $28.19 $19.17 −32% vs 600818
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $81.97 $43.17 −47% vs 600818
Life Time Group LTH $44.08 $16.08 −64% vs 600818
Hasbro, Inc HAS $117.96 $32.71 −72% vs 600818

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Zhonglu Co Ltd A · Fair Value
¥4.20 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhonglu Co Ltd A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600818

Frequently asked questions

Is Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.20 versus a price of ¥7.79, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600818?
Our model-based fair value for Zhonglu Co Ltd A is ¥4.20 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.79.
What is the quality score of 600818?
Zhonglu Co Ltd A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.20 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.20, optimistic scenario ¥4.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhonglu Co Ltd A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.20, about −46% upside versus a price of ¥7.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.20, optimistic scenario ¥4.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Zhonglu Co Ltd A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 927M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Zhonglu Co Ltd A pay a dividend?
Zhonglu Co Ltd A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhonglu Co Ltd A it is ¥4.20 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥7.79. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhonglu Co Ltd A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 600818 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.79, fair value ¥4.20, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600818?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.20). For Zhonglu Co Ltd A the two are ¥3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhonglu Co Ltd A worth?
The market values Zhonglu Co Ltd A at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.79; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600818?
Our models span a range for Zhonglu Co Ltd A: cautious scenario ¥4.20, base ¥4.20, optimistic ¥4.27 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥7.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhonglu Co Ltd A (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −13.8%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600818 from its 52-week high?
Zhonglu Co Ltd A trades at ¥7.79, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥11.49 and 48% above the low of ¥5.28 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhonglu Co Ltd A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhonglu Co Ltd A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥7.79, calculated fair value ¥4.20 (−46%), Quality Score 53/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600818 calculated?
We run Zhonglu Co Ltd A through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥4.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhonglu Co Ltd A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥7.79. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.20, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhonglu Co Ltd A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥4.20 to ¥4.27), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Zhonglu Co Ltd A

How large is the market capitalisation of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The market capitalisation of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is 3.0B CNY (≈ $450M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is 3.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Earnings per share at Zhonglu Co Ltd A are ¥−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The dividend yield of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The net margin of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is −6.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is −13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
The operating margin of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Revenue at Zhonglu Co Ltd A is growing −25.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818)?
Earnings per share at Zhonglu Co Ltd A are growing −77.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818) generate?
The free cash flow of Zhonglu Co Ltd A is −78.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Zhonglu Co Ltd A (600818) hold?
Zhonglu Co Ltd A holds more cash than debt, 196M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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