Mattel, Inc (MAT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.2B
Mattel, Inc
MAT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $19.30 to $19.29 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +12.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 30% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.44 to $29.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.05 – $26.97 · fair‑value band $12.44 – $29.56 · the $14.79 price screens below the $19.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Mattel, Inc (MAT) currently trades at $14.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.29, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mattel, Inc generated revenue of $5.4B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.6%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.44 (bear case) to $29.56 (bull case); at $14.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 30%, MAT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($23.26) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mattel, Inc reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $398M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
Watch MAT: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mattel (MAT) Q2 Earnings Lag Estimates
- Mattel (MAT) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect
- Mattel Promotes Roberto Stanichi to President, Chief Marketing and Brand Officer
- Mattel Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Here's What Could Drive Results
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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