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Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co (600868) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap 5.2B CNY

GM Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co 600868 · SHG
Price¥2.81
Fair Value¥0.6300
Upside-77.6%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -23.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 10/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥0.5300 – ¥0.7200 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +16.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.7200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥5.18 ¥1.59 Fair Value ¥0.6300 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.59 – ¥5.18 · fair‑value band ¥0.5300 – ¥0.7200 · the ¥2.81 price screens above the ¥0.6300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co (600868) currently trades at ¥2.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.6300, implying the stock looks roughly 77.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co generated revenue of 369M CNY at a net margin of -26.3%. Revenue grew 57.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 445M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5300 (bear case) to ¥0.7200 (bull case); at ¥2.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -78%, 600868 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥0.3800 ¥0.4600 ¥0.5700 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.3600 ¥0.4500 ¥0.5600 74
EV/EBITDA ¥0.4500 ¥0.5500 ¥0.6500 54
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥0.3800 ¥0.4500 ¥0.5800 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.3600 ¥0.4500 ¥0.5700 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.4000 ¥0.5100 ¥0.6600 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥0.3600 ¥0.4400 ¥0.5300 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.3900 ¥0.4800 ¥0.5900 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥0.4500 ¥0.5500 ¥0.6500 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.3600 ¥0.4500 ¥0.5400 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.4900 ¥0.6600 ¥0.9900 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥0.3800 ¥0.4600 ¥0.5700 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.3600 ¥0.4500 ¥0.5600 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥0.6600) versus DCF Models (¥0.4500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 369M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +57.9%
Net margin -26.3%
Return on equity -9.6%
Free cash flow 43.4M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -25.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0500
EPS growth (YoY) +179%
Net cash 445M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co.,Ltd. generates hydroelectric power in China. The company is involved in real estate development and operation; manufacturing; and other related businesses; investment activities using own funds; wholesale and retail of commercial materials; energy performance contracting; and construction engineering.

Full company description

Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co.,Ltd. generates hydroelectric power in China. The company is involved in real estate development and operation; manufacturing; and other related businesses; investment activities using own funds; wholesale and retail of commercial materials; energy performance contracting; and construction engineering. It also provides surveying and mapping services; geographic remote sensing information services; land consolidation services; information system integration services; planning and design management; land and space planning; data processing and storage support services; technology development, consulting, exchange, transfer, and promotion; power supply; and power generation, transmission, and distribution services. Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is based in Meizhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co reported revenue of ¥369M in FY2025 versus ¥348M in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥97.1M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
369M CNY
Latest YoY
+3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+2.0%
Revenue +1.5%/yr
FY21 ¥348M
FY22 ¥485M
FY23 ¥314M
FY24 ¥357M
FY25 ¥369M
Net income
FY21 ¥9.0M
FY22 ¥59.0M
FY23 −¥100M
FY24 −¥82.8M
FY25 −¥97.1M

600868 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600868

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -24% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -31% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 94% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.10× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.41× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.92× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 15
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 12
HEALTH 95 · sector 68
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.99 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 149.70 kr 31.40 -79%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.81 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,537 ₹170.50 -89%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.65 -10%
VERBUND AG OEWA €58.65 €66.19 +13%
BEP BEP $32.33 $73.35 +127%
BEPUN BEPUN C$44.56 C$10.15 -77%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.89 €13.90 -30%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥16.21 ¥8.23 -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co (600868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.6300 versus a price of ¥2.81, about −78% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600868?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co is ¥0.6300 (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥2.81.
What is the quality score of 600868?
Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co (600868)?
Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 369M CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600868?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Meiyanjixiang Hydropower Co is about -26.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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