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Guangan (600979) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guangan ¥1.96, price ¥3.88, upside -49.5%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · CN · ISIN CNE000001L23

G Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Guangan

600979 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥1.96 · Strongly overvalued (−49%)
!Quality 30/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥7.70 ¥2.66 Fair Value ¥1.96 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.66 – ¥7.70 · fair‑value band ¥1.15 – ¥2.93 · the ¥3.88 price screens above the ¥1.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Sichuan Guangan Aaa Public Co.,Ltd engages in the electricity, gas, and water businesses in China. The company generates and supplies hydroelectric power; and supplies natural gas, electricity, and drinking water. It operates water supply and sewage treatment plants, as well as various hydropower stations and substations.

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Sichuan Guangan Aaa Public Co.,Ltd engages in the electricity, gas, and water businesses in China. The company generates and supplies hydroelectric power; and supplies natural gas, electricity, and drinking water. It operates water supply and sewage treatment plants, as well as various hydropower stations and substations. In addition, the company operates gas storage and distribution stations, that includes LNG storage and distribution stations; and gas valve stations, regional pressure regulating stations, and CNG refueling stations serving various households. Sichuan Guangan Aaa Public Co.,Ltd was founded in 1999 and is based in Guang'an, China.

Stock analysis

Guangan (600979) currently trades at ¥3.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.96, implying the stock looks roughly 97.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.14 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥3.88 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.5800, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥1.15 (bear) to ¥2.93 (bull), the price of ¥3.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Guangan reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −365M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 4.9B CNY (≈ $731M) · P/S ratio 1.68 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2900 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin −12.1% · Return on equity −7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 10.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −49%, 600979 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥1.15 Fair Value ¥1.96 Bull ¥2.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV ¥0.2900 ¥0.5800 ¥0.8200 70
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2900 ¥0.5800 ¥0.8200 70
Gordon GGM ¥1.10 ¥1.98 ¥2.72 68
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥0.2900 ¥0.5800 ¥0.8200 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.10 ¥1.98 ¥2.72 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.10 ¥1.81 ¥2.11 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥1.90 ¥3.14 ¥4.38 64
EV/EBITDA ¥3.10 ¥4.74 ¥6.38 66
EV/Revenue ¥1.18 ¥2.47 ¥3.76 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.63 ¥2.19 ¥3.27 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥0.2900 ¥0.5800 ¥0.8200 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 13/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.4% (2020) → 13.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

600979 screens 98% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 158 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −50% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.64× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 33
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 53
DIVIDEND (yield)71 · sector 69

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $79.26 $29.88 −62%
The Southern Company SO $85.15 $58.74 −31%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $116.31 $74.89 −36%
American Electric Power Company AEP $120.27 $100.09 −17%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $62.43 $37.67 −40%
Entergy Corporation ETR $101.16 $38.37 −62%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $72.06 $54.92 −24%
Exelon Corporation EXC $41.80 $36.26 −13%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $103.84 $47.92 −54%
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG $69.12 $33.43 −52%

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Guangan · Fair Value
¥1.96 −98%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangan Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600979

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangan (600979) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.96 versus a price of ¥3.88, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600979?
Our model-based fair value for Guangan is ¥1.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.88.
What is the quality score of 600979?
Guangan has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangan (600979)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.15, optimistic scenario ¥2.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangan stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.96, about −49% upside versus a price of ¥3.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.15, optimistic scenario ¥2.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangan (600979)?
Guangan reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guangan pay a dividend?
Guangan currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangan (600979)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangan it is ¥1.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.88. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangan stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600979 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.88, fair value ¥1.96, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600979?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.96). For Guangan the two are ¥1.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangan worth?
The market values Guangan at about 4.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.88; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600979?
Our models span a range for Guangan: cautious scenario ¥1.15, base ¥1.96, optimistic ¥2.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangan (600979)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangan (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.7%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600979 from its 52-week high?
Guangan trades at ¥3.88, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥5.85 and 5% above the low of ¥3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangan?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangan stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.88, calculated fair value ¥1.96 (−49%), Quality Score 30/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600979 calculated?
We run Guangan through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangan itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangan (600979)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥3.88. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.96, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangan right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥1.15 to ¥2.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangan (600979) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangan grew +3.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guangan

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangan (600979)?
The market capitalisation of Guangan is 4.9B CNY (≈ $731M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangan (600979)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangan is 1.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangan (600979)?
Earnings per share at Guangan are ¥−0.2900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangan (600979)?
The dividend yield of Guangan is 3.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangan (600979)?
The net margin of Guangan is −12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangan (600979)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangan is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangan (600979)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangan is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangan (600979)?
The operating margin of Guangan is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangan (600979)?
Revenue at Guangan is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangan (600979)?
Earnings per share at Guangan are growing +9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangan (600979) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangan is −547M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangan (600979) carry?
The net debt of Guangan is 2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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