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Shenzhen Gas Corporation (601139) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap 18.2B CNY

SG Shenzhen Gas Corporation 601139 · SHG
Price¥6.34
Fair Value¥7.42
Upside+17.1%
Quality43/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 5.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.50% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥4.75 – ¥9.51 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥8.58 to ¥7.42 (−13.5%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +7.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 17% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (¥4.75 to ¥9.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from ¥4.75 (bear) to ¥9.51 (bull), base ¥7.42. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 43/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥12.34 ¥5.63 Fair Value ¥7.42 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.63 – ¥12.34 · fair‑value band ¥4.75 – ¥9.51 · the ¥6.34 price screens below the ¥7.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Shenzhen Gas Corporation (601139) currently trades at ¥6.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.42, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shenzhen Gas Corporation generated revenue of 29.1B CNY at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue declined 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at 5.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.75 (bear case) to ¥9.51 (bull case); at ¥6.34, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at 17%, 601139 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥4.53 ¥8.11 ¥13.99 80
Residual Income ¥5.44 ¥5.80 ¥6.43 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.07 ¥9.30 ¥14.57 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥4.53 ¥8.31 ¥14.62 38
Owner Earnings ¥0.0900 ¥0.6700 ¥1.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.07 ¥9.40 ¥15.20 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.93 ¥11.12 ¥17.51 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥5.18 ¥9.62 ¥14.57 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.63 ¥8.64 ¥14.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.40 ¥9.88 ¥16.47 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.91 ¥8.80 ¥14.08 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.43 ¥14.20 ¥19.36 54
Lynch FV ¥3.58 ¥5.12 ¥6.65 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.58 ¥5.12 ¥6.65 46
EPV ¥4.80 ¥5.72 ¥6.52 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.98 ¥4.13 ¥6.55 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.98 ¥3.48 ¥4.33 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥6.81 ¥9.09 ¥11.36 63
P/S Multiple ¥6.44 ¥8.58 ¥10.73 58
P/B Multiple ¥6.44 ¥8.58 ¥10.73 55
EV/EBIT ¥6.95 ¥9.50 ¥12.05 53
EV/EBITDA ¥7.34 ¥10.02 ¥12.70 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.49 ¥8.14 ¥10.80 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.28 ¥4.40 ¥6.56 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥4.53 ¥8.11 ¥13.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.07 ¥9.30 ¥14.57 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.44 ¥5.80 ¥6.43 76
ROIC Compounder ¥4.80 ¥5.72 ¥6.52 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥5.64 ¥8.06 ¥10.47 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.80) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 29.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.3%
Net margin 5.0%
Return on equity 8.2%
Free cash flow 1.2B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 14.3
More key figures
Operating margin 6.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.4400
Dividend yield 2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +14.3%
Net debt 5.1B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 57
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd. provides urban gas, natural gas, and LPG energy. It operates through four segments: City Gas, Gas Resources, Integrated Energy, and Smart Service. The company sells pipeline gas to urban residents, industrial and commercial enterprises, and power plants.

Full company description

Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd. provides urban gas, natural gas, and LPG energy. It operates through four segments: City Gas, Gas Resources, Integrated Energy, and Smart Service. The company sells pipeline gas to urban residents, industrial and commercial enterprises, and power plants. It offers gas facilities, equipment, and natural gas pipeline installation services. The company purchases and sells natural gas to generate electricity and supply heat. In addition, it is involved in the liquefied petroleum gas wholesale business through a network of 80,000 cubic meters; the new energy sources, such as photovoltaics, energy trading, energy-saving services, integrated energy supply, and the research and development and promotion of deep-fired turbines. Further, the company engages in gas utilities, including city pipelines gas sales and engineering construction; liquefied petroleum gas retail and wholesale; photovoltaic product sales; and new energy power generation and others. Additionally, it provides gas transmission and distribution equipment, IoT gas meters, self-branded gas appliances, and pipeline safety technology services; urban gas transmission and distribution equipment, remote monitoring system equipment, and gas user equipment to gas companies and users, as well as comprehensive solutions for the construction of gas transmission and distribution systems and maintenance services for product operations. Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shenzhen Gas Corporation reported revenue of ¥29.8B in FY2025 versus ¥21.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.5B in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
29.8B CNY
Latest YoY
+5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+14.7%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+8.2%
Revenue +8.6%/yr
FY21 ¥21.4B
FY22 ¥30.1B
FY23 ¥30.9B
FY24 ¥28.3B
FY25 ¥29.8B
Net income +1.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.4B
FY22 ¥1.2B
FY23 ¥1.4B
FY24 ¥1.5B
FY25 ¥1.5B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Gas Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601139

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth -9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.50× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.63× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 56 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 33 · sector 34
HEALTH 75 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 67

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.98 €8.11 -19%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.30 ¥25.71 +49%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shenzhen Gas Corporation (601139) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.42 versus a price of ¥6.34, about +17% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601139?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Gas Corporation is ¥7.42 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.34.
What is the quality score of 601139?
Shenzhen Gas Corporation has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Gas Corporation (601139)?
Shenzhen Gas Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601139?
The net profit margin of Shenzhen Gas Corporation is about 5.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shenzhen Gas Corporation pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Gas Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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