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China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd ¥25.00, price ¥6.02, upside +315.3%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE1000009T1

CR Thin data Sep 28, 2026

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd

601186 · SHG

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥25.00 · Strongly undervalued (+315.3%)

!Quality 38/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.5 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!5.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage

!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)

!Narrow moat 27/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 17 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear ¥21.22 to bull ¥30.94 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 38/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.93 – ¥12.20 · fair‑value band ¥21.22 – ¥30.94 · the ¥6.02 price screens below the ¥25.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Construction Operations; Planning, Design and Consultancy Operations; Manufacturing operations; Real Estate Development Operations; and Other Business Operations. The Construction Operations segment engages in the construction of infrastructure, such as railways, highways, rail transits, water conservancy and hydropower, housing construction, municipal engineering, bridges, tunnels, airports, and wharves. The Plan, Design and Consultancy Operations segment provides planning, design, and consultancy services for civil engineering and infrastructure construction projects, such as railways, highways, urban rail transport, etc. The Manufacturing Operations segment is involved in the research and development, production, and sale of mechanical equipment comprising railway track maintenance and tunnel boring machinery, as well as manufacturing of track systems, etc. The Real Estate Development Operations segment engages in the development, construction, and sale of residential and commercial properties. The Other Business Operations segment includes trade and logistics, finance and insurance, and highway operation activities. In addition, it is involved in the purchase and sales of goods and materials; and offers project investment and financial services. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Railway Construction Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Railway Construction Corporation Group.

Stock analysis

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) currently trades at ¥6.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥25.00, implying the stock looks roughly 75.9% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥37.45 per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥6.02 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥13.06, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥21.22 (bear) to ¥30.94 (bull), the price of ¥6.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0T CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 18.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 81.7B CNY (≈ $12.2B) · P/E ratio 5.8 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.03 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 315%, 601186 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥21.22 Fair Value ¥25.00 Bull ¥30.94

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5520 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

EPV ¥18.32 ¥24.02 ¥29.02 74

Residual Income ¥23.19 ¥23.90 ¥25.47 74

ROIC Compounder ¥18.32 ¥24.02 ¥29.02 70

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd ¥10.85 ¥38.80 ¥52.27 62

Lynch FV ¥9.14 ¥13.06 ¥16.98 59

PEG = 1.0 ¥9.14 ¥13.06 ¥16.98 55

EPV ¥18.32 ¥24.02 ¥29.02 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥21.36 ¥44.41 ¥70.45 64

DDM Multi-Stage ¥21.36 ¥37.45 ¥46.61 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥25.14 ¥33.52 ¥41.90 63

P/S Multiple ¥20.35 ¥27.14 ¥33.92 58

P/B Multiple ¥20.35 ¥27.14 ¥33.92 55

EV/EBIT ¥35.90 ¥53.17 ¥70.44 65

EV/EBITDA ¥47.05 ¥68.04 ¥89.03 67

EV/Revenue ¥21.06 ¥36.91 ¥52.76 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥14.79 ¥19.82 ¥29.58 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income ¥23.19 ¥23.90 ¥25.47 74

ROIC Compounder ¥18.32 ¥24.02 ¥29.02 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E ¥17.50 ¥25.00 ¥32.51 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 22

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 32

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 4

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 18

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 68

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 100

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 26

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 5

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−3.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−2.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year

Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+13.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+3.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.2% vs 3.3%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 4.3% · Below median

Return on assets 1.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1.7% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 4.4% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −15.3% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.10× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.24× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.08× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 1.76× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21

PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 29

HEALTH (low debt)45 · sector 94

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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China Railway Construction Corp Ltd · Fair Value
¥25.00 +76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Construction Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601186

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥25.00 versus a price of ¥6.02, about +315% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 601186?

Our model-based fair value for China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is ¥25.00 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.02.

What is the quality score of 601186?

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥25.00 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥21.22, optimistic scenario ¥30.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Railway Construction Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥25.00, about +315% upside versus a price of ¥6.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥21.22, optimistic scenario ¥30.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 969B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).

Does China Railway Construction Corp Ltd pay a dividend?

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Construction Corp Ltd it is ¥25.00 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ¥6.02. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Railway Construction Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 28, 2026, 601186 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥6.02, fair value ¥25.00, a gap of about +315% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 601186?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥25.00). For China Railway Construction Corp Ltd the two are ¥18.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Railway Construction Corp Ltd worth?

The market values China Railway Construction Corp Ltd at about 81.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.02; our models calculate a fair value of ¥25.00 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601186?

Our models span a range for China Railway Construction Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥21.22, base ¥25.00, optimistic ¥30.94 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ¥6.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 601186?

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥25.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.6.

What is the PEG ratio of 601186?

The PEG ratio of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 1.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 601186 from its 52-week high?

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd trades at ¥6.02, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥8.16 and 2% above the low of ¥5.93 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥25.00 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Construction Corp Ltd?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Railway Construction Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ¥6.02, calculated fair value ¥25.00 (+315%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 601186 calculated?

We run China Railway Construction Corp Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥25.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Construction Corp Ltd currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥6.02. Our model-based fair value is ¥25.00, about +315% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Railway Construction Corp Ltd right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥21.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Where does the earnings growth of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) come from?

Earnings per share at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd grew +6.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The market capitalisation of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 81.7B CNY (≈ $12.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Earnings per share at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd are ¥1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The dividend yield of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 5.0% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The net margin of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

The operating margin of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Revenue at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is growing −15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186)?

Earnings per share at China Railway Construction Corp Ltd are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) generate?

The free cash flow of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is −44.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does China Railway Construction Corp Ltd (601186) carry?

The net debt of China Railway Construction Corp Ltd is 352B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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