China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd ¥2.30, price ¥22.70, upside -89.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥2.30 · Strongly overvalued (−89.9%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −0.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers(4/14)
!Narrow moat37/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.80 – ¥53.88 · fair‑value band ¥1.75 – ¥2.80 · the ¥22.70 price screens above the ¥2.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. provides satellite communications and broadcasting services.
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China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. provides satellite communications and broadcasting services. It offers business support platforms, including visualized platform to support design, simulation, and evaluation on satellite resources and satellite application; multi-satellite unified tracking, telemetry, and control (TT&C) platform; traditional beam comprehensive service; carrier grade satellite broadband business and operation infrastructure platform; and satellite application platforms for airborne, maritime, emergency response, and universal services. The company also provides long-term and temporary rental services of satellite resources; TT&C, consulting for satellites and related applications, training, network access testing and antenna certification, and geosynchronous orbit communication satellite interference positioning services; bandwidth rental services for TV channels distribution, contribution and direct-to-home broadcast through satellites; and OU services to transmit radio and television programs. In addition, it offers leasing services for space segments; uplink service, HUB hosting and operation, and other teleport services; information services, such as remote sensing images, and location and weather information; consultation, certification, training, advertising, and other related services; and integrated information services in land, sea, and air for sensing and transmission. Further, the company provides emergency communications; private network communication network; universal services based on satellite communication; E-education; telecommunication services; satellite-based IoT solutions; streaming media, audio and video transmission, and live broadcasting; smart monitoring and early warning services; and services for marine and airborne applications. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Beijing, China. China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation.
Stock analysis
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) currently trades at ¥22.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.30, 89.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.54 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥22.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.3200, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.75 (bear) to ¥2.80 (bull), the price of ¥22.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 441M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 95.9B CNY (≈ $14.3B) · P/E ratio 252.2 · P/S ratio 42.1 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0900 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −90%, 601698 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.3200 to ¥6.27). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥1.75Fair Value ¥2.30Bull ¥2.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0441 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.1% vs −3.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +67.6% a year for the price.
Compare China Satellite Communications Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)252.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)36.15× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF488.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA54.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)3· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)9· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 74
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Satellite Communications Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601698
Frequently asked questions
Is China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.30 versus a price of ¥22.70, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601698?
Our model-based fair value for China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is ¥2.30 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥22.70.
What is the quality score of 601698?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.30 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.75, optimistic scenario ¥2.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Satellite Communications Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.30, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥22.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.75, optimistic scenario ¥2.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does China Satellite Communications Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Satellite Communications Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +70.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601698 use?
Our models discount China Satellite Communications Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Satellite Communications Co Ltd that is +70.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies +70.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (+70.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.20 %: that much free cash flow China Satellite Communications Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Satellite Communications Co Ltd it is ¥2.30 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of ¥22.70. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Satellite Communications Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 601698 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥22.70, fair value ¥2.30, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601698?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥22.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.30). For China Satellite Communications Co Ltd the two are ¥20.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Satellite Communications Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Satellite Communications Co Ltd at about 95.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is ¥22.70; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601698?
Our models span a range for China Satellite Communications Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.75, base ¥2.30, optimistic ¥2.80 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price ¥22.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601698?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 252.2 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.0, P/S 36.1, EV/EBITDA 54.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601698 from its 52-week high?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd trades at ¥22.70, about 58% below its 52-week high of ¥53.88 and 12% above the low of ¥20.18 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Satellite Communications Co Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Satellite Communications Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price ¥22.70, calculated fair value ¥2.30 (−90%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601698 calculated?
We run China Satellite Communications Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Satellite Communications Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was ¥22.70. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.30, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Satellite Communications Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) come from?
Earnings per share at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd grew −0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.8 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The market capitalisation of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 95.9B CNY (≈ $14.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 42.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Earnings per share at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd are ¥0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 252.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The dividend yield of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 0.1% (payout 34.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The net margin of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
The operating margin of China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Revenue at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698)?
Earnings per share at China Satellite Communications Co Ltd are growing −21.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (601698) hold?
China Satellite Communications Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.4B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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