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Bank of Chengdu Co (601838) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 84.7B CNY

BO Bank of Chengdu Co 601838 · SHG
Price¥17.97
Fair Value¥36.24
Upside+101.7%
Quality58/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 61.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.59% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Wide moat 69/100
Evidence: High Range ¥27.18 – ¥45.30 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from ¥35.86 to ¥36.24 (+1.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −4.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 102% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥27.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥20.88 ¥8.94 Fair Value ¥36.24 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.94 – ¥20.88 · fair‑value band ¥27.18 – ¥45.30 · the ¥17.97 price screens below the ¥36.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Bank of Chengdu Co (601838) currently trades at ¥17.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥36.24, implying the stock looks roughly 101.7% undervalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Bank of Chengdu Co generated revenue of 21.7B CNY at a net margin of 61.8%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.0%. Net debt stands at 70.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥27.18 (bear case) to ¥45.30 (bull case); at ¥17.97, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 102%, 601838 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥245.43 ¥408.80 ¥683.45 80
Residual Income ¥22.50 ¥27.81 ¥62.60 76
ROIC Compounder ¥51.94 ¥57.29 ¥62.31 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥246.61 ¥423.19 ¥727.24 38
Owner Earnings ¥62.77 ¥94.39 ¥148.84 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥101.42 ¥121.31 ¥141.90 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥117.41 ¥154.02 ¥195.17 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥124.22 ¥167.95 ¥214.54 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥148.42 ¥183.18 ¥225.14 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥159.32 ¥207.05 ¥269.39 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥163.82 ¥217.22 ¥285.49 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥21.31 ¥96.22 ¥131.93 54
Lynch FV ¥25.12 ¥35.88 ¥46.65 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥25.12 ¥35.88 ¥46.65 46
EPV ¥51.53 ¥56.35 ¥60.56 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥10.75 ¥22.34 ¥35.44 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥10.75 ¥18.84 ¥23.45 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥47.01 ¥62.68 ¥78.35 63
P/S Multiple ¥10.40 ¥13.87 ¥17.33 58
P/B Multiple ¥39.96 ¥53.28 ¥66.60 55
EV/EBIT ¥70.96 ¥87.06 ¥103.17 53
EV/EBITDA ¥58.73 ¥70.76 ¥82.78 54
EV/Revenue ¥32.37 ¥36.53 ¥40.69 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥11.72 ¥15.70 ¥23.44 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥245.43 ¥408.80 ¥683.45 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥22.50 ¥27.81 ¥62.60 76
ROIC Compounder ¥51.94 ¥57.29 ¥62.31 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥39.66 ¥56.65 ¥73.65 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥408.80) versus Asset-Based (¥15.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 21.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6%
Net margin 61.8%
Return on equity 14.0%
Free cash flow 74.4B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 6.4
More key figures
Operating margin 71.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥3.10
Dividend yield 4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.2%
Net debt 70.1B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. provides various banking products and services in China. The company operates through three segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Fund Operation Sales.

Full company description

Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. provides various banking products and services in China. The company operates through three segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Fund Operation Sales. It offers savings; accounts; fixed, education savings, lumpsum, and corporate deposits; wealth management; fund products; agency treasury bonds; debit and credit cards; and personal, syndicated, working capital, fixed asset, real estate development, specialized corporate, entrusted, enterprise, science and technology enterprise, and full garden loans. The company also provides investment banking, including structured financing, mergers and acquisitions financing, credit bond underwriting, asset securitization, capital markets, and local debt and transaction matching advisors; foreign exchange; remittance; international settlement and trade finance; documentation services contact information; financial markets; treasury management; bill of exchange; guarantee; and asset custody. In addition, it offers account and settlement services; bill financing; government-bank linkage; and electronic banking, such as online, mobile, and telephone banking. The company was formerly known as Chengdu City Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. in May 2008. Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bank of Chengdu Co reported revenue of ¥23.5B in FY2025 versus ¥32.5B in FY2021, a compound −7.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥13.3B in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
23.5B CNY
Latest YoY
−50.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−14.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+10.1%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y)
+14.1%
Revenue −7.8%/yr
FY21 ¥32.5B
FY22 ¥37.9B
FY23 ¥43.2B
FY24 ¥47.1B
FY25 ¥23.5B
Net income +14.1%/yr
FY21 ¥7.8B
FY22 ¥10.0B
FY23 ¥11.7B
FY24 ¥12.9B
FY25 ¥13.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Chengdu Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601838

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Below median
Fair Value upside +102% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 62% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 71% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.44× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.90× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 23 · sector 44
PAST 56 · sector 41
HEALTH 78 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 92 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Bank of Chengdu Co (601838) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥36.24 versus a price of ¥17.97, about +102% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601838?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Chengdu Co is ¥36.24 (as of Jul 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥17.97.
What is the quality score of 601838?
Bank of Chengdu Co has a Quality Score of 58/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Bank of Chengdu Co (601838)?
Bank of Chengdu Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601838?
The net profit margin of Bank of Chengdu Co is about 61.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 61.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Bank of Chengdu Co pay a dividend?
Bank of Chengdu Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.59% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 25, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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