Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Well Lead Med Co Ltd stock ¥6.47, price ¥11.01, that is 41.2% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.24 – ¥23.58 · fair‑value band ¥4.21 – ¥9.49 · the ¥11.01 price screens above the ¥6.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. engages in the development, production, and sale of medical devices in urology, endourology, anaesthesia, respiratory, hemodialysis, and pain management areas worldwide.
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It provides urology products, including Foley catheter, Nelaton catheters, urine collection products, and accessories; endourology products, such as the ClearPetra family system, ureterorenoscope, guide wires, ureteral stent, urethral and ureteral dilation, and stone retrieval basket; anesthesia products, comprising endotracheal tubes, intubation accessories, laryngeal masks, endobronchial and tracheostomy tubes, anesthesia breathing circuits and accessories, and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal airway products.
The company also offers respiratory products, including oxygen and aerosol therapy products, and capnography mask and cannula products; drainage/suction/gastroenterology products, such as drainage systems, Yankauer handles, suction catheters, and stomach and feeding tubes; hemodialysis blood tubing set; home care products, including male external catheter and convicath intermittent catheter; and ambulatory infusion pump for pain management.
Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) currently trades at ¥11.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.47, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥13.70 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥11.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.32, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥4.21 (bear) to ¥9.49 (bull), the price of ¥11.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Well Lead Med Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was 76.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2B CNY (≈ $481M) Small · P/E ratio 57.9 · P/S ratio 1.95 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −41%, 603309 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥4.21Fair Value ¥6.47Bull¥9.49
Price ¥11.01 · Downside -41.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+15.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.1% vs −2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 181 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−41.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)57.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.84× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.95× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)3· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Well Lead Med Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603309
Frequently asked questions
Is Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.47 versus a price of ¥11.01, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603309?
Our model-based fair value for Well Lead Med Co Ltd is ¥6.47 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.01.
What is the quality score of 603309?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.47 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.21, optimistic scenario ¥9.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Well Lead Med Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.47, about 41% lower versus a price of ¥11.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.21, optimistic scenario ¥9.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Well Lead Med Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was May 28, 2026. The payout ratio is 158% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.42 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Well Lead Med Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603309 use?
Our models discount Well Lead Med Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Well Lead Med Co Ltd that is +20.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Well Lead Med Co Ltd grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Well Lead Med Co Ltd (+20.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.86 %: that much free cash flow Well Lead Med Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Well Lead Med Co Ltd it is ¥6.47 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥11.01. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Well Lead Med Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 603309 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.01, fair value ¥6.47, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603309?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.47). For Well Lead Med Co Ltd the two are ¥4.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Well Lead Med Co Ltd worth?
The market values Well Lead Med Co Ltd at about 3.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.01; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603309?
Our models span a range for Well Lead Med Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.21, base ¥6.47, optimistic ¥9.49 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥11.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603309?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 28.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Balance-sheet figures for Well Lead Med Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603309 from its 52-week high?
Well Lead Med Co Ltd trades at ¥11.01, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥15.95 and 4% above the low of ¥10.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Well Lead Med Co Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Becton, Dickinson and Company, Medline Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Well Lead Med Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥11.01, calculated fair value ¥6.47 (−41%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603309 calculated?
We run Well Lead Med Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥6.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Well Lead Med Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥11.01. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.47, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Well Lead Med Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥4.21 to ¥9.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) come from?
Earnings per share at Well Lead Med Co Ltd grew +7.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Well Lead Med Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The market capitalisation of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 3.2B CNY (≈ $481M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 1.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Earnings per share at Well Lead Med Co Ltd are ¥0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The dividend yield of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 2.7% (payout 158%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The net margin of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
The operating margin of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Revenue at Well Lead Med Co Ltd is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309)?
Earnings per share at Well Lead Med Co Ltd are growing −33.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Well Lead Med Co Ltd (603309) carry?
The net debt of Well Lead Med Co Ltd is 258M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026