Well Lead Medical Co (603309) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 3.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥11.87 to ¥5.75 (−51.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.24 – ¥23.58 · fair‑value band ¥4.31 – ¥7.19 · the ¥11.59 price screens above the ¥5.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Well Lead Medical Co (603309) currently trades at ¥11.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.75, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Well Lead Medical Co generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at 258M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.31 (bear case) to ¥7.19 (bull case); at ¥11.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -50%, 603309 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.87) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. engages in the development, production, and sale of medical devices in urology, endourology, anaesthesia, respiratory, hemodialysis, and pain management areas worldwide.
Full company description
Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. engages in the development, production, and sale of medical devices in urology, endourology, anaesthesia, respiratory, hemodialysis, and pain management areas worldwide. It provides urology products, including Foley catheter, Nelaton catheters, urine collection products, and accessories; endourology products, such as the ClearPetra family system, ureterorenoscope, guide wires, ureteral stent, urethral and ureteral dilation, and stone retrieval basket; anesthesia products, comprising endotracheal tubes, intubation accessories, laryngeal masks, endobronchial and tracheostomy tubes, anesthesia breathing circuits and accessories, and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal airway products. The company also offers respiratory products, including oxygen and aerosol therapy products, and capnography mask and cannula products; drainage/suction/gastroenterology products, such as drainage systems, Yankauer handles, suction catheters, and stomach and feeding tubes; hemodialysis blood tubing set; home care products, including male external catheter and convicath intermittent catheter; and ambulatory infusion pump for pain management. Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Well Lead Medical Co reported revenue of ¥1.6B in FY2025 versus ¥1.1B in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥76.3M in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
603309 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Instruments & Supplies · 203 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $402.33 | $150.04 | -63% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme 1EL | €172.45 | €68.55 | -60% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $41.11 | $30.15 | -27% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $150.65 | $103.53 | -31% |
| Alcon Inc ALC | $70.26 | $39.78 | -43% |
| ResMed Inc RMD | $203.87 | $187.89 | -8% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $353.71 | $143.97 | -59% |
| Straumann Holding STMN | CHF 106.00 | CHF 47.31 | -55% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €188.50 | €51.16 | -73% |
| Coloplast A/S COLOB | kr 414.00 | kr 382.22 | -8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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