Toly Bread Co (603866) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 6.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥3.84 to ¥3.73 (−2.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥2.61 (bear) to ¥4.66 (bull), base ¥3.73. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.70 – ¥22.06 · fair‑value band ¥2.61 – ¥4.66 · the ¥4.28 price screens above the ¥3.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Toly Bread Co (603866) currently trades at ¥4.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.73, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Toly Bread Co generated revenue of 5.4B CNY at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 621M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.61 (bear case) to ¥4.66 (bull case); at ¥4.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -13%, 603866 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥3.83) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. engages in the production and sales of bread, pastries, moon cakes, and other products in China. The company was formerly known as Shenyang Toly Bread Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. in March 2017. Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is based in Shenyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toly Bread Co reported revenue of ¥5.4B in FY2025 versus ¥6.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥284M in FY2025, compounding −21.9%/yr from FY2021.
603866 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
Compare Toly Bread Co with another stock
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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