Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd ¥3.49, price ¥4.14, upside -15.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.68 – ¥20.48 · fair‑value band ¥2.39 – ¥4.66 · the ¥4.14 price screens above the ¥3.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. engages in the production and sales of bread, pastries, moon cakes, and other products in China. The company was formerly known as Shenyang Toly Bread Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. in March 2017. Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is based in Shenyang, China.
Stock analysis
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) currently trades at ¥4.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.49, implying the stock looks roughly 18.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.73 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥4.14 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.04, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.39 (bear) to ¥4.66 (bull), the price of ¥4.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 284M CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6B CNY (≈ $989M) · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1600 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −16%, 603866 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.39Fair Value ¥3.49Bull ¥4.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price.
Compare Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603866
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.49 versus a price of ¥4.14, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603866?
Our model-based fair value for Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is ¥3.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.14.
What is the quality score of 603866?
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.39, optimistic scenario ¥4.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.49, about −16% upside versus a price of ¥4.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.39, optimistic scenario ¥4.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603866 use?
Our models discount Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd that is +8.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd grew -1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (+8.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.47 %: that much free cash flow Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd it is ¥3.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.14. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603866 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.14, fair value ¥3.49, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603866?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.49). For Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd the two are ¥0.6500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd at about 6.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.14; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603866?
Our models span a range for Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.39, base ¥3.49, optimistic ¥4.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603866?
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603866 from its 52-week high?
Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd trades at ¥4.14, about 29% below its 52-week high of ¥5.82 and 13% above the low of ¥3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.14, calculated fair value ¥3.49 (−16%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603866 calculated?
We run Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥4.14. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.49, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥2.39 to ¥4.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd grew +5.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.0 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The market capitalisation of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 6.6B CNY (≈ $989M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 1.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Earnings per share at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd are ¥0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The dividend yield of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 4.8% (payout 125%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The net margin of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
The operating margin of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Revenue at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is growing −2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866)?
Earnings per share at Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd are growing −38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd (603866) carry?
The net debt of Shenyang Toly Bread Co Ltd is 621M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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