Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co (603915) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥7.99 to ¥12.38 (+54.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥9.28 (bear) to ¥15.47 (bull), base ¥12.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.79 – ¥34.26 · fair‑value band ¥9.28 – ¥15.47 · the ¥13.58 price screens above the ¥12.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co (603915) currently trades at ¥13.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.38, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co generated revenue of 2.7B CNY at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 9.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.28 (bear case) to ¥15.47 (bull case); at ¥13.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -9%, 603915 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.25) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.34). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. researches and develops, manufactures, and sells reducers and motors in the industrial reduction gear industry in China. The company offers cycloidal reducers, geared motors, gearboxes, planetary gear reducers, heavy-duty gearboxes, induction products, and precision planetary series, as well as technical support services.
Full company description
Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. researches and develops, manufactures, and sells reducers and motors in the industrial reduction gear industry in China. The company offers cycloidal reducers, geared motors, gearboxes, planetary gear reducers, heavy-duty gearboxes, induction products, and precision planetary series, as well as technical support services. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Changzhou, China. Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Guomao Reducer Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co reported revenue of ¥2.6B in FY2025 versus ¥2.9B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥235M in FY2025, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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