Xuelong Group (603949) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −19.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥4.97 to ¥9.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.28 – ¥32.10 · fair‑value band ¥4.97 – ¥9.07 · the ¥14.23 price screens above the ¥7.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Xuelong Group (603949) currently trades at ¥14.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.09, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xuelong Group generated revenue of 449M CNY at a net margin of 21.3%. Revenue grew 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 96.5M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.97 (bear case) to ¥9.07 (bull case); at ¥14.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -50%, 603949 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥7.23) versus DCF Models (¥1.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research, development, production, and sale of internal combustion engine cooling systems and automotive lightweight plastic products in China. The company offers engine cooling fan systems, silicone oil clutch fan assembly, and electronically controlled silicone oil clutch fan assembly.
Full company description
Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research, development, production, and sale of internal combustion engine cooling systems and automotive lightweight plastic products in China. The company offers engine cooling fan systems, silicone oil clutch fan assembly, and electronically controlled silicone oil clutch fan assembly. It also provides automotive lightweight blow molding and other injection molding. Its products are used in commercial vehicles, construction machinery, and agricultural machinery sectors. Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Ningbo, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xuelong Group reported revenue of ¥434M in FY2025 versus ¥473M in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥90.0M in FY2025, compounding −8.5%/yr from FY2021.
603949 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
Compare Xuelong Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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