Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Poly Property Development Co Ltd HK$67.30, price HK$28.00, upside +140.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$20.85 – HK$54.97 · fair‑value band HK$46.57 – HK$103.87 · the HK$28.00 price screens below the HK$67.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Poly Property Services Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a property management service provider in China.
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Poly Property Services Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a property management service provider in China. The company offers property management services for residential communities under the Oriental Courtesy, Elegant Life, and Harmony Courtyard brands; trinity services, including property management, asset management, and corporate services for commercial and office buildings under the Nebula Ecology brand; and public services under the Poly Public Services brand. It also provides value-added services to non-property owners and property developers, such as pre-delivery services to assist with sales and marketing activities at property sales venues and display units, which include visitor reception, cleaning, security inspection, and maintenance, as well as consultancy, inspection, delivery, and engineering maintenance services; and office leasing services. In addition, the company offers community value-added services to property owners, including home furnishing, parking space agency, house rental and sales agency, housekeeping, parking lot, and other services, as well as community retail and space operations. Further, it provides Energy retrofitting and engineering management services, and catering services, as well as operates real estate agency. The company was formerly known as Poly Property Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. in July 2020. Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Guangzhou, China. Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) currently trades at HK$28.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$67.30, implying the stock looks roughly 58.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$106.30 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$28.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.99, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$46.57 (bear) to HK$103.87 (bull), the price of HK$28.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Poly Property Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 16.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$15.4B (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.62 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 140%, 6049 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$46.57Fair Value HK$67.30Bull HK$103.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1644 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.6% vs 12.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.1%/yr over ~8Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−39.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −40.3% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+140.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poly Property Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6049
Frequently asked questions
Is Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$67.30 versus a price of HK$28.00, about +140% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6049?
Our model-based fair value for Poly Property Development Co Ltd is HK$67.30 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$28.00.
What is the quality score of 6049?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$67.30 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$46.57, optimistic scenario HK$103.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poly Property Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$67.30, about +140% upside versus a price of HK$28.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$46.57, optimistic scenario HK$103.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Poly Property Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Poly Property Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -39.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6049 use?
Our models discount Poly Property Development Co Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Poly Property Development Co Ltd that is -39.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Poly Property Development Co Ltd grew +15.7 % a year. The price currently implies -39.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Poly Property Development Co Ltd (-39.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.24 %: that much free cash flow Poly Property Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poly Property Development Co Ltd it is HK$67.30 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$28.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poly Property Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 6049 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$28.00, fair value HK$67.30, a gap of about +140% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6049?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$28.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$67.30). For Poly Property Development Co Ltd the two are HK$39.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poly Property Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Poly Property Development Co Ltd at about HK$15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$28.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$67.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6049?
Our models span a range for Poly Property Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$46.57, base HK$67.30, optimistic HK$103.87 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$28.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6049?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$67.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 6049?
The PEG ratio of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 0.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poly Property Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6049 from its 52-week high?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd trades at HK$28.00, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$35.49 and 9% above the low of HK$25.76 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$67.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poly Property Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poly Property Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$28.00, calculated fair value HK$67.30 (+140%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6049 calculated?
We run Poly Property Development Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$67.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Poly Property Development Co Ltd currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$28.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$67.30, about +140% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poly Property Development Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$46.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$46.57 to HK$103.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) come from?
Earnings per share at Poly Property Development Co Ltd grew +25.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.0 %, EBIT margin +6.1 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Poly Property Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The market capitalisation of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is HK$15.4B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 0.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Earnings per share at Poly Property Development Co Ltd are HK$1.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The dividend yield of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 5.0% (payout 86.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The net margin of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
The operating margin of Poly Property Development Co Ltd is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Revenue at Poly Property Development Co Ltd is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049)?
Earnings per share at Poly Property Development Co Ltd are growing +4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Poly Property Development Co Ltd (6049) hold?
Poly Property Development Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 10.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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