Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co (605169) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 2.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥7.71 to ¥7.31 (−5.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +12.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.37 – ¥19.77 · fair‑value band ¥5.76 – ¥9.13 · the ¥10.20 price screens above the ¥7.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co (605169) currently trades at ¥10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.31, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co generated revenue of 3.0B CNY at a net margin of 3.4%. Revenue declined 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 662M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.76 (bear case) to ¥9.13 (bull case); at ¥10.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -28%, 605169 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥12.33) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the production, processing, storage, transportation, and sales of liquefied natural gas and compressed natural gas in China.
Full company description
Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the production, processing, storage, transportation, and sales of liquefied natural gas and compressed natural gas in China. The company is also involved in the investment, construction, and operation of gas stations and gas pipeline networks; sale of natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial use; and provision of industrial gas transmission and distribution services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Korla, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co reported revenue of ¥3.1B in FY2025 versus ¥1.2B in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥122M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
605169 screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.30 | ¥25.71 | +49% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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